Jockey in form (9 wins in 14 days)Won 1 of last 5Won here 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The clear market favourite at under 3/1, and the form justifies the confidence — she won here at Salisbury just 26 days ago, making her the only course winner in the field. The concern is that all her running has been on better ground, and today's wet conditions are something she has never encountered before. Oisin Murphy, one of the most in-form jockeys in the country right now with 9 wins from 42 rides in the last fortnight, takes the reins — so there's plenty of firepower, if the ground doesn't catch her out.
Wearing blinkersJockey in form (7 wins in 14 days)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The race preview has singled this horse out as the one to beat, and there's a logic to it — lightly raced with only three outings, there's still plenty of unexplored potential. His best finish so far is a fourth at Newbury, and he steps into his first race in this type of competition today, which is a new challenge. Tom Marquand, who has been winning nearly 1 in 5 races over the past fortnight, takes the ride — a significant booking that adds weight to the case.
Dropping in classFresh (64 days off)Jockey in form (5 wins in 14 days)Trainer in formWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse alongside two others in this field, with just three races under its belt — all of which ended in mid-pack finishes and none in the places. Today brings a step up in class on top of that, which makes this a tough ask, and wet ground adds another untested variable for a horse still finding its feet. Honest assessment: there's very little in the record to suggest a first win is coming here.
Steps up 2 classesNever raced on wet groundLightly raced (3 career races)
Wearing tongue strapJockey in form (10 wins in 14 days)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Ten races without a win, but she's been placed four times and ran a near-miss second just a couple of months ago — so this isn't a horse without ability. The big question mark is today's wet ground: she has never raced on anything like it, so how she handles it is a genuine unknown. On the plus side, jockey Billy Loughnane is in hot form right now, winning roughly 1 in every 4 races over the past fortnight — the best recent record of any rider in this field.
Never raced on wet groundJockey in best form (10 from 38 last 2wk)
The lowest-rated horse in the race, carrying the lightest weight — 13 pounds below the field average in terms of official rating, which is a significant gap and reflects what the form book says about her chances. Four races, no wins, no places, though a fourth at this course 26 days ago was her best finish to date. She has never raced on wet ground, and on ratings alone she faces a steep climb against these rivals.
Lowest rated, 13lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in fieldNever raced on wet ground
Twelve races without a win, but the recent form has genuinely improved — he was second at this very course just 26 days ago, beaten only half a length, and followed that with a fifth at Chepstow. That Salisbury second place is a strong piece of form for today, making him arguably the most course-relevant runner in the field based on recent outings. Wet ground remains untested, but the trajectory here is the most encouraging of any winless horse in the race.
Three races, no wins, no places, and beaten by at least 10 lengths in every outing — the form figures make for uncomfortable reading. She is also the lowest-rated horse in the field alongside Follow My Heart, sitting 11 points below the field average, which tells you the official assessors don't think much of her chances either. Wet ground is another unknown, and blinkers go on today, which can sometimes spark a reaction — but there's a lot to overcome.
Never raced on wet groundLightly raced (3 career races)
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Drew stall 1, which is the lowest-performing part of the course at this distance — historically only 12% of winners come from the low draws, and this horse gets the very worst of it. He won his only career race on standard ground at Wolverhampton, but that was nearly 200 days ago and today's wet surface is completely uncharted territory. The jockey and trainer haven't landed a winner together from 15 attempts, which doesn't help the case.
Never raced on wet groundBest record at this trip (1 from 6)
Six races in and still winless, with just a single placed finish to show for it — a third place that now looks like the high point of a fairly modest record. The last two outings produced a sixth and a tenth, and today's wet ground is new territory for this horse. The jockey-trainer combination has yet to click either, with no wins from six attempts together.
Never raced on wet groundTrainer in best form (2 from 12 last 2wk)
Rated higher than most of her rivals here, but the market has turned completely against her after drifting to 36/1 — a dramatic swing that suggests those closest to the race aren't confident. She finished sixth at Brighton last time out, beaten nearly seven lengths, and faces wet ground from a wide draw in stall 12, where this course historically produces fewer winners. There's a decent career record buried in here — placed four times from six races — but everything about today looks against her.
With 16 races under his belt, Madman is by far the most experienced horse in a field that averages just 6 races per runner — but that experience has yielded only one win, roughly 1 in every 16 outings. The last three runs have gone 5th, 6th, and 9th, suggesting the form is heading in the wrong direction. His one win came on slower ground, which could be relevant today, but the overall picture is one of a horse that has had plenty of chances and not taken them.
On paper she has the best win rate in the field — one win from five races — but the recent form makes that hard to get excited about. Her last run was a 13th-place finish here at Salisbury just 17 days ago, beaten over 24 lengths, and the two runs before that weren't much better. Whatever earned her that win appears to have faded from the picture for now.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.