Jockey in form (9 wins in 14 days)Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
Won at Windsor 17 days ago and finished second at Salisbury just 26 days ago, so this horse arrives in excellent recent form and already knows the track. The big unknown is the wet ground — all three career wins have come on fast, dry ground and this horse has never raced on anything wet. Elite jockey Oisin Murphy takes the ride, but the trainer hasn't had a winner in seven attempts over the past two weeks.
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 53 races compared to a field average of 22 — and has finished in the places in nearly half of those outings, which tells you about a horse that rarely embarrasses itself. However, the recent form is a concern: three consecutive fifth-place finishes, and the record on wet ground is a glaring zero from three attempts. Despite being the market favourite, today's conditions look like a genuine problem.
Most experienced (53 runs, field avg 22)Market favourite (4.5)
Won at this course & distanceWearing cheekpiecesQuick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5Won here 2 times
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in the field with a win over this exact course and distance — in fact, two wins from seven races at Salisbury — and the editorial verdict picks this horse ahead of the market favourite. The nagging concern is a run of poor recent form (ninth, sixth and seventh in the last three) and a record on wet and slower ground that reads zero wins from 11 attempts, which is difficult to square with a race run on a wet surface today.
Only course winner (2 from 7 here)Has won over this course and distanceRuns again after just 4 days
Trainer Quotes
Aug 2025
"She's had an amazing season with five wins to her name, so it was disappointing when she was last of five at Pontefract on Sunday. We can put a line through that because there was a debacle at the stalls and she was left in them far too long. That may be the reason she didn't come out of the stalls in good time and became marooned in last place. The price of her successes is that she's become difficult to place, although there's a 6f handicap at Goodwood this Friday that might suit. 20-08-25"
Ran second at Newmarket last time out and won the race before that, so form is pointing in the right direction — but today's wet ground is completely unknown territory, as this horse has never raced on anything but dry or normal conditions across 25 career races. That question mark over the ground makes this a leap of faith, and the jockey has had a quiet recent spell with zero wins from two rides in the last fortnight.
Never raced on wet ground
Trainer Quotes
Sep 2023
"He was very green on his debut at Thirsk last month but stayed on pleasingly towards the end. That was over 6f, so we upped him to 7f last week at Musselburgh where he finished fourth, and it was definitely a step in the right direction. 06-09-23"
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
A horse that transforms on the right surface — wins 43% of its races on slower ground, which is a remarkable record — but has been off the track for 49 days and the jockey-trainer combination has produced zero wins from 15 races together, which is hard to ignore. The six-length defeat at Pontefract last time out was poor, and there is a lot of confidence needed to back this one.
Jockey in form (10 wins in 14 days)Won 1 of last 5Won at this distance 3 times
TrackLab Insight
Ran second just 10 days ago and has finished in the places in the last three completed races, so fitness and form are both ticking over. However, every one of this horse's four career wins has come on normal ground — the record on slower or wetter conditions reads zero from seven attempts, which is a serious concern given today's wet surface. Drawn highest in the field at stall 11, which carries the worst win rate at this course and distance.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Jockey in form (7 wins in 14 days)Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 3 times
TrackLab Insight
Every single one of this horse's four career wins has come at Lingfield Park — it has never won anywhere else — so switching to Salisbury today is a major unknown. The form coming in is solid (third and second in the last two runs), but like several rivals today, this horse has never raced on wet ground and carries the lowest official rating of any of the fancied runners.
Wearing cheekpiecesQuick turnaroundJockey in form (4 wins in 14 days)Won 1 of last 5Won at this distance 4 times
TrackLab Insight
Has the best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 5 races — and the jockey Finley Marsh is in the hottest form of any rider here, landing 4 winners from 15 rides in the past two weeks. The worry is that Lazzar ran ninth just four days ago and all four career wins have come on normal ground, not the wet conditions on offer today.
Best record at this trip (4 from 11)Runs again after just 4 daysBest career win rate in field (1 in 5)Jockey in best form (4 from 15 last 2wk)
Wearing tongue strapWon 1 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse in the field with just five career races, and the recent form is hard to spin positively — eighth and tenth in the last two outings, beaten by 17 and 10 lengths respectively. At odds of 31, there is nothing in the data to suggest this is a horse about to turn things around, and a 57-day break since last racing adds another layer of uncertainty.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
Rated 12 pounds below the field average — the biggest gap of any runner here — and has finished eighth in both of its last two races. The only positive is a lower weight to carry, but the form, the class drop and two consecutive poor runs make this horse very hard to recommend at any price.
Lowest rated, 11lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
The blunt truth is that this horse has not won in six career races, including a heavy defeat at Windsor just 36 days ago. It has never raced on wet ground, and at odds of 101 the market is making a very clear assessment — this is the longest-priced runner in the field and the data doesn't give much reason to disagree.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.