Salisbury

The most intriguing unknown in the race — Le Samourai has never raced before, so there is no form whatsoever to go on, just breeding and the second-shortest price in the field at 4.7. Bred by New Bay out of a Street Cry mare, the pedigree is high-class on paper, and the editorial tip picks this out as the main danger to the favourite. Ralph Beckett is a trainer with a strong record producing well-bred horses first time out, and the low draw in stall 3 is the best position statistically at this course and distance.

Bold Shout has raced just once, finishing fourth and beaten fewer than three lengths at Newbury only eight days ago — which is actually a decent debut in a competitive environment. That closeness to the winner is more encouraging than most horses in this field can offer, though wet ground today is something Bold Shout has never experienced. Drawn in stall 11, this horse is in the part of the track that historically produces the fewest winners at Salisbury over this distance.

Rajiba finished second just eight days ago at Wolverhampton, beaten by just over a length, which is one of the freshest encouraging pieces of form in this field. Jockey Finley Marsh has been in excellent shape recently, riding four winners from his last 15 races — the best recent record of any jockey here. The only concern is that today's wet turf at Salisbury is completely different from the artificial surface where that placed effort came.

The most experienced horse in the field with four races under her belt, Areti has placed three times despite never winning — suggesting a horse that competes honestly but keeps finding one too good. She has been off the track for 159 days, the longest absence in this field, which makes reading her current form difficult. Wet ground is also new territory, and while the consistency is appealing, the layoff and unknown conditions make this a risk.