Nottingham

The top-rated horse in the field and the market favourite, though the odds have drifted significantly from where they opened, which is worth noting. A runner-up finish two races back is the best recent evidence of quality, but back-to-back poor showings since — including a distant seventh at Wolverhampton — and 49 days off the track make this harder to back with confidence. Our selection on the figures, but far from a certainty.

The best career win rate in this field — one win from six races, which works out at roughly one in every six — and the only horse here to have won as recently as 52 days ago, at Redcar. The concern is what came next: a distant 13th at Doncaster and then a fourth at Newcastle suggest that Redcar win may have flattered, and today's six-furlong trip is notably shorter than the distances where this horse has shown best. The hood fitted today is worth noting as a change of equipment.

The freshest piece of form in the field: a near-miss second place just 22 days ago, beaten less than half a length at Newcastle. That's the most recent sharp evidence of any runner here, and at the same odds as the favourite, this horse makes a compelling case. Eight races without a win is a long wait, but that Newcastle run suggests the moment could be close.

The least experienced horse in the field with only five races to its name, and form figures of 5-5-4-4-3 tell the story of a horse steadily creeping closer without yet threatening to win. Cheekpieces are fitted today — a piece of equipment designed to sharpen a horse's focus — which is sometimes a sign the trainer is trying something new to unlock an improvement. Worth watching, but needs to find more than it has shown so far.