Nottingham

Our top pick for this race, rated clear of the field on official figures despite carrying less weight than most rivals — that combination is unusual and worth taking seriously. She steps up two class levels today, which sounds like a risk, but the rating advantage over this company is substantial enough that it should not matter. The 84-day absence is the one genuine question mark, as she has had time to freshen up but also time to go backwards.

By far the most battle-hardened horse in the field with 41 races to his name — the next most experienced runner has just nine — and all three of his career wins have come in higher-class races than this, which tells you something about his ability on his day. The concern is that today's conditions may not suit: his record on normal, dry ground is poor, and he has never won on a right-handed track like Nottingham. At 10 years old, he brings experience but his best days appear to be behind him.

Rated joint-second in this field and with a run at this exact course on his record, Token Love arrives as one of the more credible dangers to the selection. Nine races without a win is not encouraging, but he has placed twice and his Nottingham experience is a genuine plus in a small field. The 79-day absence is worth noting — he hasn't been out since early in the year.

Three races, three last-place finishes, beaten an average of around 22 lengths each time — the form figures do not leave much room for optimism. The only positive here is that he is lightly raced for a three-year-old, so there may be untapped improvement, but he has given no sign of it yet. The trainer and jockey have a solid working relationship with roughly 1 win in every 10 races together, so the team at least knows what it is doing.