Musselburgh

This is the horse most obviously suited to today's race: he's won at Musselburgh over this distance and boasts an outstanding 29% win rate on good ground, which covers today's conditions. A runner-up finish just three days ago shows sharp fitness and he's the only course winner in the field.

The only unbeaten horse in his last two weeks with back-to-back wins at Yarmouth, Luminous Warrior has the best win rate in the field at roughly one in six races. But he's moving to a different track and type of race, and has zero wins on good ground from three attempts—a real concern on today's surface.

The editorial selection has genuine form credentials here—he wins roughly one in four races over this distance (3 from 14), his best record anywhere. However, he's found nothing on normal ground (0 wins from 10) and hasn't won since April, so backing the selection requires faith in a form turnaround.

The lowest-rated horse by 10 lengths and running again after just one day's rest following a ninth-place finish at Musselburgh yesterday, this four-year-old has never won in ten races and carries the least weight purely because he's the weakest. There's little to recommend backing a tired, winless horse returning to the same track 24 hours on.

This four-year-old has never won in 12 races and arrives off a 52-day break after finishing well beaten at Bellewstown. Stepping up two classes and meeting a jockey for the first time, Evangelic looks drastically out of his depth in what the market suggests is a race to avoid.