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Coconut Bay

Seven years old and still lacing up the gloves, Coconut Bay is the kind of horse that keeps turning up and making its presence felt. With 7 wins and 28 places from 77 races, it has finished in the top three nearly half the time across its career — which, if you think about it, means backing it to run well has been a fairly reliable punt, even if the wins themselves come around roughly once in every eleven races.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Mare
Colour
Bay
Father
Bated Breath
Mother
Tropicana Bay
Owner
Mrs Hugh Fraser
Rating
53

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
77
Career races
7
Wins
9.1%
Win rate
avg ~10%
36.4%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The level at which Coconut Bay competes is worth understanding. Class 6 is the entry level of British racing — the bread and butter, the everyday stuff. That is where this horse has done the bulk of its work, winning 6 of its 63 races at that level. It is not a glamour act, but it is a consistent, professional performer at its own grade, and there is something quietly admirable about that.

The partnership with jockey Jason Hart stands out. In 18 races together, Hart has ridden Coconut Bay to 3 wins — that is a win rate of 17%, or roughly 1 in every 6 rides. Compare that to the horse's overall record of 1 in every 11, and it is clear that when Hart is in the saddle, something clicks. Trainer Tristan Davidson operates out of Irthington in Cumbria — a small northern yard that has still managed to send out 21 winners this season, which tells you this is not a hobby operation.

Conditions matter with this one. On fast, dry ground, Coconut Bay wins 2 from 11 races — an 18% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 5-and-a-half, which is noticeably better than its all-weather average. When the sun has been out and the ground is riding quick, it pays to take notice.

The last win came at Catterick Bridge on 9 July 2025 — a full year ago now — which means a drought is building. The recent form of 2-3-4-7-11-3 tells an interesting story: it has been running well enough to fill places, but that winning feeling has been elusive. Still racing as recently as yesterday, Coconut Bay is clearly in good health and still competing. At seven, it has probably seen and done most things a horse at this level can. Whether it can find its way back to the winner's enclosure is the question worth watching.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 2 wins from 11 starts (18%)
Course specialist at Catterick Bridge: 3 wins from 14 starts (21%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
Yet to win at Newcastle in 13 attempts
Yet to win at Southwell in 7 attempts
Yet to win at Musselburgh in 7 attempts
Struggles on RH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 9 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to firm (drying out)
Loves
Good (firm-ish)
Standard (all-weather)
Ok
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
7F – 1M
1M3F – 1M4F
Ok
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
5F – 6½F
Avoids
1M1F – 1M2F
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Loves
Class 6 (grassroots)
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, tight turns
Loves
Left-handed, long straights
Ok
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
16 Jul
2nd
Thirsk
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 10 runners
8 Jul
3rd
Catterick Bridge
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 9 runners
30 Jun
4th
Musselburgh
7f – 1m · Good · 10 runners
8 Jun
7th
Carlisle
5f – 6½f · Soft · 9 runners
11 May
11th
Catterick Bridge
7f – 1m · Good · 14 runners
5 May
3rd
Ayr
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 9 runners
8 Apr
8th
Catterick Bridge
7f – 1m · Good · 14 runners
5 Nov
7th
Musselburgh
7f – 1m · Soft · 12 runners
18 Oct
7th
Catterick Bridge
7f – 1m · Good · 10 runners
9 Oct
7th
Ayr
7f – 1m · Heavy · 8 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
Jason Hart Current Jockey
16.7%
Win rate
3/18
Won / Rode
16.7%
Win rate
2/12
Won / Rode
Phil Dennis
0%
Win rate
0/6
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/4
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
Rhys Elliott
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
50%
Win rate
1/2
Won / Rode
Millie Wonnacott
50%
Win rate
1/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
Louis Steward
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Zak Wheatley
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Mohammed Tabti
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Wolverhampton
Galloping
18 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third, 13 other 21 Apr 11.1%
Catterick Bridge
Sharp
14 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third, 9 other 8 Jul 21.4%
Newcastle
Galloping
13 1 second, 1 third, 11 other 6 Dec 0%
Ayr
Galloping
7 1 win, 4 thirds, 2 other 5 May 14.3%
Southwell
Galloping
7 2 seconds, 1 third, 4 other 30 Jan 0%
Musselburgh
Sharp
7 2 seconds, 1 third, 4 other 30 Jun 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
4 1 win, 1 third, 2 other 20 Aug 25%
Carlisle
Undulating
2 2 other 8 Jun 0%
Thirsk
Galloping
2 2 seconds 16 Jul 0%
Great Yarmouth
Galloping
1 1 other 10 Oct 0%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
1 1 third 11 Jun 0%
Ripon
Sharp
1 1 other 28 Aug 0%