Hereford
·
Hereford
Awaiting result
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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By The Grace
Underrated horse
£1 wins £3.33 · 26 Strong chance
N. Henderson's horses finish 71.4% of their races
26
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 10/3
£1 wins £3.33 · 26 Strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- N. Henderson's horses finish 71.4% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
- A 27.9% win rate at this course for N. Henderson. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- N. Henderson has a 20.0% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
Conniemak
Underrated horse
£1 wins £7.50 · 18 Solid chance
T. Vaughan's runners finish 57.1% of their races
18
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- T. Vaughan's runners finish 57.1% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
- A 16.4% overall win rate for J. Bowen. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- T. Vaughan wins only 7.3% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Gardner's horses finish 20% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- S. Gardner wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
£1 wins £11 · 8 Could surprise
N. & Willy Twiston-Davies's horses finish their races 48% of the time
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- N. & Willy Twiston-Davies's horses finish their races 48% of the time. That is a reliable stable. Horses that finish are usually fit and well prepared.
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- Finished 8th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Ralph's horses finish their races 27.3% of the time. That is a reliable stable. Horses that finish are usually fit and well prepared.
- Starting from a good position. On some tracks, starting on one side can save ground.
- This is an 11-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Phillips's runners finish 40% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- R. Phillips wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- T. Faulkner's runners finish 81.8% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
- Good prize money on offer. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- T. Worsley has a 3.9% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- M. Sheppard's horses finish 40% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- An 11-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Longsdon's runners finish 46.7% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
- The starting stall helps today. At this course, some stalls have done better than others.
- A 13.5% career win rate for C. Longsdon. That is below the top trainers.
LEmpire Vert
£1 wins £40 · 2 Long shot
S. Lewis's runners finish 100% of their races
2
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Lewis's runners finish 100% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- S. Lewis has a 4.4% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Hitch's runners finish 0% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
- Starting from a good position. On some tracks, starting on one side can save ground.
- C. Hitch has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.