Curragh

The most compelling case in the field: Perry Mason has won 3 of his 5 races at this exact course, making him the standout course specialist here by some distance. He won here just 11 days ago and his overall win rate of roughly 1 in 3 is the best in the field — the only question mark is that today's slightly soft ground is new to him, and this jockey-trainer combination has yet to click with zero wins from five tries.

Holy See arrives on the back of a win at Gowran Park 55 days ago and has won 1 in every 5 races across his career, but today's slightly soft ground is completely unknown territory — he has never raced in these conditions before. The 7lb claim of apprentice jockey Jamie Orr helps with the weight, but this is a step into the unknown on ground he may never have encountered.

Granite Bay has the best record at this exact trip in the field — 1 win from 3 races at 1m6f — but his ground record tells a clear story: 2 wins from 4 on fast, dry ground, and zero wins from 7 races when conditions turn soft or wet. Today's slightly soft ground puts him firmly in unfamiliar territory, and the market has drifted him to 14s.

At nine years old, Dawn Rising is one of the veterans of this field and crucially one of the few horses here who has actually won at this course. The last two runs are missing from the data, so it's hard to know exactly where he is right now — and the market has drifted him out to 17s, suggesting those in the know aren't rushing in.

Tribal Star has placed in an extraordinary 13 of 19 career races, but has only converted that into 2 wins — a win rate of roughly 1 in 9. He ran a solid 3rd at Chester just 26 days ago, but has never raced on slightly soft ground and has never won on a right-handed galloping track in five attempts, which reads as two significant obstacles at the Curragh today.

En Or has been absent for 105 days — longer than any other horse in this field — and returns having finished 12th and 7th in his two runs before that. His record on any kind of wet or soft ground is winless across 14 attempts, which on today's slightly soft surface makes it very hard to see where the improvement comes from at odds of 34s.

Nine years old and a winner just once in every 11 or so races, Tyson Fury faces an uphill task here — especially as both of his career wins have come at Dundalk, an all-weather track that is nothing like today's conditions. He has never won on a right-handed galloping track in five attempts, and he has never raced on slightly soft ground, so there is very little in the data to encourage support at 29s.