Granite Bay

The most telling number in the file is the ground stat. On normal conditions, Granite Bay has won 2 of just 4 races — a 50% win rate, which is extraordinary. That is not a coincidence; that is a horse that genuinely thrives when the ground is neither waterlogged nor baked dry. When the track is riding normally, this horse becomes a completely different proposition, and anyone watching it struggle on heavy ground in winter should not write it off on that basis alone.

Ronan Whelan has been in the saddle for 13 of the horse's 15 career races, winning 3 of them together — that is a 23% win rate, better than one in four, and that kind of continuity matters. When a jockey rides the same horse that often, they learn its quirks: when to push, when to sit quietly, where in the race it tends to find its best stride. That partnership is one of Granite Bay's quiet strengths.

The last win came at Listowel on 24 September 2024 — now 21 months ago — and since then, the horse has gone six races without a victory. The recent form of 2-2-4-2-4-3 (reading from oldest to newest) tells a story of a horse that keeps filling the places without getting its nose in front. That is frustrating for the team at Fahey's yard, but it is not the form of a horse falling apart. It is placing in nearly every race, which means it is fit, competitive, and in the mix. It just needs things to click.

Raced just yesterday, Granite Bay is clearly in an active campaign right now. The question is whether the right combination — Whelan up, normal ground, a race that suits — arrives before another near-miss does.