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Cheltenham

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Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
12h 22min
Jumps race · big fences · weighted to be fair Underrated horse: As Legends Have It About 2.5 miles Good ground Mid-level race 11 runners £11,618 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd or 3rd, at 1/5 odds
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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9 Lisbane Park
B. Powell · J. Tizzard · 5yo · 10st 10lb · Official rating 120
£1 wins £3 · 22 Strong chance
A 2m 4f race suits this horse well
Freshness Form
22
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 3/1
£1 wins £3 · 22 Strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.00 back.

How odds work
✓ Race distance ✓ Event type ✓ Horse record at this course
Back after 217 days off Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • A 2m 4f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
  • This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
  • J. Tizzard has an 8.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Lisbane Park is the market favourite at 10/3 but carries a modest 20% win rate from just five races and has been quiet for 217 days since his breakthrough win. His last two defeats came by razor-thin margins (1.2L and 0.1L), which hints at competitive ability, but the long absence and lack of racing experience remain real concerns.
Market favourite (10/3)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.

How odds work
Won 1 of last 5 Likes this ground (wins 67% of runs)
Why this score
  • S. Twiston-Davies has a good 9.8% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
  • Finishing 1st last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
  • N. & Willy Twiston-Davies has a 3.3% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Spectacularsunrise is building momentum at exactly the right time—he won at Perth just 30 days ago and thrives on normal ground with 2 wins from 3 races in those conditions. His 31% win rate and the fact he is underrated by the market make him one of the form horses in the field, though the layoff since Perth and a weak record on softer ground are anchors.
Best record on this ground (2 from 3)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Back after 116 days off Won 3 of last 5 Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • Has won over this distance 1 time. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
  • This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
  • This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Rockonliam is the sharpest form horse in the field: three straight wins across Wexford and Listowel, and he has finished in the top 3 in every single one of his eight races. His 38% win rate (best in the field) and 67% record on yielding ground are genuine strengths, though his most recent win came 77 days ago and he has never run on normal ground like this.
3 straight top-3 finishes Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Back after 252 days off Won 1 of last 5 Won here 1 time Has won on this ground
Why this score
  • A 20% win rate on this ground from 5 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
  • 1 win at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
  • This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
De Temps En Temps is the only course winner in the field (1 win from 2 at Cheltenham, including victory at this exact course and distance) and has a respectable 25% win rate, but he has been absent for 252 days—the longest lay-off in the race. That extended break, combined with zero wins on soft ground, makes him a risky proposition despite the course form.
Only course winner (1 from 2 here) Has won over this course and distance Absent 252 days (longest in field)
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Back after 210 days off Won 2 of last 5
Why this score
  • A 15.8% overall win rate for B. Jones. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
  • A 7.4% win rate at this course for B. Jones. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
  • B. Pauling wins only 5.9% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
As Legends Have It is on a three-race winning streak with victories at Stratford and Uttoxeter, the last just 210 days ago, and carries the underrated label despite drifting in the market. However, he has never raced on normal ground before, which makes this a genuine unknown—his form has come on different surface conditions entirely.
Never raced on normal ground
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 185 days off Won 2 of last 5
Why this score
  • K. Bailey & Mat Nicholls has a good 20% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
  • With a 9.7% win rate overall, C. Gethings is one of the more dependable riders.
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Sogna In Grande is lightly raced with just three career runs and has won 2 of them—a 67% win rate that is exceptional but comes with huge uncertainty. His last race was a fourth-place finish 185 days ago, and with so little data on what to expect, he is a wildcard rather than a reliable guide.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Back quickly after its last run Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before Has won on this ground
Why this score
  • H. Skelton wins 13.0% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
  • An 18.7% overall win rate for D. Skelton. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Palamon is the most experienced horse in the field (41 races vs a field average of 14) and won at Southwell just 11 days ago, then ran second at Plumpton just 5 days back—a sign he is still sharp. His 10% win rate is modest, but he is clearly thriving under the Skelton yard's constant racing plan and finished in the top 3 in four of his last six starts.
Most experienced (41 runs, field avg 14) Runs again after just 5 days
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.

How odds work
Dropping to an easier race Wearing hood Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
  • This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
  • The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
O'Moore Park is top-rated here by 4lbs and has his best record at this trip (1 win from 4 races), but those standout markers mask a harsh reality: he has won just once in 23 races and has not found the winner's enclosure since January 2024. The step up two classes is ambitious for a horse with a 4% win rate and zero wins on any ground conditions except standard.
Top rated by 4lbs Steps up 2 classes Best record at this trip (1 from 4)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.

How odds work
Dropping to an easier race Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
  • With a 21.3% win rate overall, H. Cobden is one of the more dependable riders.
  • Only 14th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
Sony Bill steps up two classes but brings a 0% win rate from 14 races—he has never broken through despite multiple opportunities and his recent form reads badly (14th at Chepstow, 5th at Stratford). At 50/1, he is a horse going backwards rather than forwards.
Steps up 2 classes
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before Likes this ground (wins 33% of runs)
Why this score
  • A 2m 4f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
  • Its average finish over the last three runs is 2. That is steady. Horses that finish near the front often do so again.
  • A 0% record at this course for M. Bowen. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Ballykinlar has finished top 3 in two of his last three races and rides a strong partnership record with Eoin Staples (60% win rate together), but he is not in the saddle today. Without his preferred jockey and carrying an 18% career win rate, Ballykinlar's recent form is harder to rely on.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Back after 182 days off Won 1 of last 5
Why this score
  • An 18.8% win rate at this course for O. Greenall & Josh Guerriero. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • Finishing 1st last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Kahavari is the lowest-rated horse in the field and carries the lowest weight, but his form speaks louder than the rating: he has finished in the top 2 in five of his last six races, including a win 182 days ago. An 8% win rate is slim, but his consistency in running close finishes suggests he is competing well above his bare record—though the 182-day absence since his last victory is a concern.
Lowest rated, 6lbs below average Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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