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Cheltenham

·
Novices' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
15h 17min
Jumps race · big fences About 3.1 miles Good ground High-level race 6 runners £21,784 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd, at 1/4 odds
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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3 Catchintsavo
S. Twiston-Davies · A. Honeyball · 6yo · 11st 2lb · Official rating 142
£1 wins £2.25 · 28 Strong chance
6 runners today is a good number for this horse
Headgear Freshness
28
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 9/4
£1 wins £2.25 · 28 Strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.25 back.

How odds work
✓ Field size ✓ Horse record on this going ✓ Jockey starts at this course
Wearing tongue strap Back after 197 days off Won 3 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • 6 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
  • Finishing positions are getting worse. A horse that is losing form may not turn it around today.
TrackLab Insight
Catchintsavo has finished in the top 3 in all 10 of its career races—an almost freakish level of consistency that makes it genuinely hard to dismiss. It carries an underrated label, has won 3 of 6 starts on good-to-soft ground (50% win rate), and took 197 days off before running second at Aintree, suggesting the yard has had time to sharpen it for this step up.
2nd highest rated (OR 142)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.25 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Back after 346 days off Won 2 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • 3m 1f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
  • With an average finish of 2 in recent runs, this horse keeps finishing close to the front. It would not need much luck to win.
  • 346 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
TrackLab Insight
Derryhassen Paddy is the market favourite at 9/4 but has not raced in 137 days and has never competed on normal ground in its short career of just 4 races—two genuine concerns for a horse returning from a long break to unfamiliar conditions. Its best form includes a Class 2 win at Windsor, which shows it can run well, but the time away and ground unknown leave serious questions.
Never raced on normal ground Absent 346 days (longest in field) Market favourite (9/4)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Back after 63 days off Won 2 of last 5
Why this score
  • A 6-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • 3m 1f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
  • A 10.2% career win rate for D. O'Keeffe. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Butch Cassidy wins roughly 2 in 5 races—the standout win rate in this field—and arrives fresh after a success at Killarney 63 days ago. However, he has never won on heavy or wet ground (0 from 3 attempts), which is a real concern if conditions deteriorate; today's normal ground plays to his strengths.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.

How odds work
Won 1 of last 5 Likes this ground (wins 33% of runs)
Why this score
  • This is a 6-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • A 3m 1f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
  • A low win rate on this ground from 6 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
TrackLab Insight
Turndlightsdownlow has the best record on normal ground in the field (2 wins from 6 starts) and runs frequently enough to have recent fitness (last out 29 days ago). However, it wins only 1 in 4 races overall and has finished second in its last three starts, suggesting it finds the top spot elusive even when finished in the top 3.
Best record on this ground (2 from 6)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.

How odds work
Back after 224 days off Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • A 3m 1f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
  • This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
  • J. Tizzard has an 8.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Kasino Des Mottes has struggled badly in recent outings (10th and 8th in its last two races, beaten by 20+ lengths) and wins only 1 in 6 races across its career. The horse sat out 224 days before its last effort and shows little form to suggest it can compete here.
Mid-range in the market (12/1)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.

How odds work
Stepping up to a harder race Won 3 of last 5
Why this score
  • With a 15.1% win rate overall, B. Hughes is one of the more dependable riders.
  • A 5% win rate at this course for B. Hughes. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
  • Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Follow Your Luck has won 3 of its last 4 races and drops 2 classes from its usual level, landing in a much weaker contest than it normally faces. The 5-year-old's form is scorching right now, but the career sample is tiny (just 4 races total), so there's genuine uncertainty beneath the eye-catching numbers.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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