Palamon

Recent form has been trickier. In his last six races, Palamon has only finished in the top 3 twice — a third-place effort two runs back and another third place most recently — with a string of fifth-place finishes in between. Yet he refuses to go away. Last week, he won at Southwell, which is where Palamon seems to find his best form, and he is still being run regularly by his trainer, suggesting the yard believes he has more to give. That win came on normal ground conditions, which suits him; he has won 3 of his 16 races on standard ground, a striking 19% win rate that hints at pickiness about what he likes underfoot.

The clues to backing Palamon lie in his distance and the surfaces where he flies. Pitch him at 1m3f to 1m4f — the middle distances — and his win rate jumps to 25%, or 1 win from 4 races, a figure that stands out from his overall 10% win rate. That is where he competes at his best. Sean Flanagan, his usual partner, has won only once from 9 rides, so there is no secret partnership at play, but Skelton's yard is moving them through the grades steadily and Palamon remains an active runner with genuine credentials when the ground is right and the trip suits.