Cartmel

Hot form: won 2 of his last 6 races at Worcester and Bangor, and raced yesterday, so the Ben Pauling yard clearly thinks he's ready to strike again. Four wins from 14 starts (29% win rate) is the best ratio in the field, though he's not rated highly by the weights and is a relative stranger to Cartmel.

In the form of his life, winning 3 of his last 6 races including victory at Hexham 102 days ago, and he's got a 40% win rate on soft ground. Hasn't raced in 75 days though, which is a longer layoff than most in this field, and he struggles on standard-to-slow ground — a potential concern depending on how this surface plays.

Dropping two classes from his usual level after finishing 4th yesterday at Newton Abbot — a quick turnaround that suggests confidence. His record on slightly soft ground is exactly level with the field average (1 from 3), and he wins roughly once per five races, but the drop in class could be the spark he needs.

The lowest rated runner in the field, carrying the lightest weight (145lbs), with just two wins from 20 races. His last three runs were all 3rd place finishes at Worcester, showing consistency but no spark, and he's never raced on slightly soft ground — this feels like a horse out of his depth at this level.

The editorial dismisses him as a live threat, and rightly so: only three wins from 29 races (10% win rate) and he's zero from 5 on soft ground, which is a genuine worry on this slightly soft surface. Raced at Cartmel twice recently without winning, and the data paints a picture of honest but limited ability.

Has won over this course and distance, a meaningful fact, and his record on good-to-soft ground (33%) suits this surface. However, he's 8 years old, hasn't won in 122 days, and is 13 pounds below the field average in the ratings — this feels like a horse past his best, despite the Cartmel pedigree.

Only two wins from 16 races tells a thin story, but he carries blinkers and a tongue strap today and was beaten just 1 length by a better rival here at Class 2 recently. His record on soft and good-to-soft ground (25%) is competitive enough, though a 7th place finish at Perth just two weeks ago is a concerning run-up to this.

The editorial pick sits on a 126 rating — well clear of the field average — but the market doesn't fancy him at 17.5, and for good reason: he's pulled up once in his last three races and finished 7th here just 62 days ago. Never raced on slightly soft ground before, so this surface remains a complete unknown despite his record on yielding-to-soft being decent (1 win from 3).