Beverley
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Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Hull Handicap Stakes
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
£1 wins £3.50 · 26 Strong chance
P. J. McDonald wins 11.6% of their races at this course
26
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 7/2
£1 wins £3.50 · 26 Strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. J. McDonald wins 11.6% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- D. Evans wins 9.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- P. J. McDonald wins only 18.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
She carries the lightest weight in the field, which is an advantage in a race like this, and her recent form shows a consistent pattern of placing — four times in the top four from her last six races. Her only win came on dry ground, the same conditions she faces today, and she's raced regularly enough to be fit. She hasn't quite clicked yet in this grade, but the profile of a horse that keeps showing up in the frame makes her one to watch.
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 26.2% win rate at this course for C. Fallon. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- C. Fallon wins 14.0% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Our top-rated horse by the figures and the market's second favourite, but his overall record is modest — just one win from eleven races, and that single victory was almost three years ago. He ran a decent third last time out at Windsor, which is the best recent form he brings here, and cheekpieces and a tongue strap suggest the team are trying to sharpen him up. Solid on paper, but he needs to prove he can convert promise into a win.
2nd in the market (4.5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 43% win rate on this ground from 7 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- 4 wins at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- Only 10th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
The standout course specialist in this field — three of his four career wins have come right here at Beverley, and he's won over this exact trip too. On dry ground like today's, he wins roughly 1 in every 2.3 races, a record that towers above anything his rivals can offer at this track. The worry is his last run here ended in a distant tenth, so he needs to bounce back sharply.
Course specialist (3 wins from 10 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Best record on this ground (3 from 7)
Best record at this trip (4 from 14)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The trend in recent results is up. Each run has been better than the one before, which is encouraging.
- A 9.8% overall win rate for G. Wood. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- The trainer has a modest career record. That works against this horse.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 67 races to the field average of 20 — and the best career win rate here at roughly 1 win in every 7 races. He won as recently as 65 days ago at Doncaster, though his last run there was a poor 13th, and his record on dry ground like today's is flat: zero wins from seven tries. At nine years old and with a new jockey on board for the first time, this looks like a tough ask.
Has won over this course and distance
Most experienced (67 runs, field avg 20)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 7)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- A 17.5% win rate at this course for R. Sexton. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- N. Wilson wins only 6.6% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
No wins from 12 races, but the recent form is genuinely interesting — he finished a close second here at Beverley just 16 days ago, beaten less than a length. That run at this exact course and distance makes him a live danger, even if the jockey-trainer combination has yet to win together in eight attempts. He carries less weight than most rivals, which could be the edge he needs to go one better.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £16.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A prize fund of £4,004 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A 9-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A. Brown wins only 5.9% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the race, sitting 4lbs below the field average, and his recent form makes grim reading — seven consecutive finishes of seventh or worse. He ran just seven days ago at Ayr and finished seventh there too, so returning so quickly with no obvious improvement in sight makes this a tough sell. He's running in cheekpieces, but there's little in the data to suggest a turnaround is imminent.
Lowest rated, 4lbs below average
Runs again after just 7 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- An 8.4% overall win rate for R. Scott. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Only 10th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse in the field alongside Itszaboy, with just four races under her belt and no wins or places to show for any of them. Her last run was a distant tenth at Wolverhampton, and the form trend is heading the wrong way rather than improving. At 19/1, the market is telling you this is a significant step up in what's needed.
Relatively inexperienced (4 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- There is £4,004 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- L. Mullaney has a 6.5% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Eight races in and still searching for a first win, with the last two outings both resulting in eighth place — the most recent by over 20 lengths at Wetherby. He also hasn't raced for 46 days, longer than almost anyone else in the field, and today he partners a jockey for the first time, which adds another unknown. The data here is thin on encouragement.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- N. Tinkler has a good 16.7% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- N. Tinkler wins only 7.4% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Six races, no wins, no places — and the best finish so far is a fifth, which came in his very first race. Since then the trend has been firmly mid-to-back of the field, including two sixth-place finishes in his last two runs, one of them here at Beverley 17 days ago. There is nothing in the record to suggest today will be different.
Relatively inexperienced (6 career races)