Mike Murphy

The most eye-catching number in Murphy's recent record is what happens when Jesse Luc takes the ride. Six wins from 23 races together is a partnership that works — that's closer to 1 in 4, comfortably above Murphy's yard average, and the kind of combination that suggests the two have developed a real understanding of how his horses run and when they're ready to go. When you find a jockey who clicks with your string like that, you ride it.

The picture with Daniel Muscutt is rather different. One win from 20 rides together — 1 in 20 — is a thin return, and while there will be races in there where the horse simply wasn't good enough on the day, it's the sort of statistic worth noting. Not every partnership gels, and the numbers here suggest this one hasn't.

Great Yarmouth is worth flagging as a track Murphy has quietly made his own on a small scale. Three winners from 12 runners there is a 25% win rate — 1 in every 4 — which is more than three times his overall seasonal average. Whether that's down to the horses he targets there, familiarity with how the track rides, or simply good timing, it's a pattern that has repeated itself enough to be meaningful.

The one thing to watch is the dip in form. Murphy won at roughly 1 in 6 races last year — a healthy rate for a trainer at this stage of their career — but that has slipped to 1 in 12 this season. A halving of your win rate in twelve months isn't a crisis, and every yard goes through leaner spells, but it's the kind of trend that Murphy will be aware of and looking to reverse as the season develops.