Uttoxeter
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Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
Starts in
18h 20min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins 91p · 45 Very strong chance
This is a 5-runner race, and the size suits this horse
45
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 10/11
£1 wins 91p · 45 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.91 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 5-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- S. Bowen wins 20.1% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Fresh off a debut win at Worcester just 23 days ago, Taranis Dubh has momentum on his side and a proven record on normal ground—the only horse in the field with a win on this surface. At 3 races and 1 win (33%), he's lightly raced but has strung together a top-3 finish in his last three outings (1st-2nd-3rd), suggesting genuine form has arrived. The market favourite at 7/4, but odds have drifted significantly from 1/8, reflecting the uncertainty that always surrounds horses stepping up in class after early success.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Market favourite (7/4)
28
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 5-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- N. Henderson has won 21.9% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old with a perfect record—1 race, 1 win (100%)—from his debut at Haydock Park in May, and he's trained by Nicky Henderson, whose yard has produced 260 wins from 1,135 races with his jockey. One win from one race is eye-catching on paper, but it's still just one race; debut winners step up in class every time, and nothing yet tells us whether that success will translate to a tougher field. At 19/10, the market has assigned him reasonable odds, but early brilliance does not guarantee progression.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- T. Lacey wins 17.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Aged 4, the time when a horse races at its best is short, and this age is not ideal.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old winless after 2 races, having finished 4th most recently at Chepstow before that and 2nd before that—so one finished in the top 3 finish from two attempts. The problem is he's never raced on normal ground; both runs have come at Chepstow, where the surface conditions are harder. After a 211-day absence (longest in the field), returning to a surface type he's never experienced adds another layer of uncertainty, and his recent 4th suggests form may be regressing rather than improving.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Absent 211 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 5-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- H. C Knight wins only 12.1% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old with just 2 races under his belt and zero wins, but he has already shown enough (finishing 2nd at Bangor-On-Dee 195 days ago) to suggest ability is developing. The 195-day gap since his last run is a concern, but our model rates him higher than the market price of 7/1 suggests—what matters now is whether that ability has progressed or faded during a long absence. He remains one of the least exposed horses in the field if that trajectory has continued.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- D. Killahena & Graeme McPherson wins 16.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
A 6-year-old making his racecourse debut with zero prior form to assess, so there is genuinely nothing to go on. The breeding (by Idaho, out of a Definite Article mare) points toward a stayer built for distance rather than speed, but debut runners are inherently unpredictable. At 14/1, odds have drifted sharply from an opening 1/5, which tells you the market has little confidence in a first-time runner at this stage.
Racecourse debut
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.