Nottingham
·
Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap Stakes
Starts in
7h 27min
Turf track
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
TrackLab Insight
The market has made this the favourite, and the editorial team's top pick on their ratings — but his last six runs read 5th, 8th, 10th, 5th, 13th, 8th, which is a sequence that demands explanation rather than blind faith. His best record comes at this exact distance of six furlongs, with two wins from six races here, so the trip at least plays to his strengths. Worth noting that all of those recent runs came at higher-profile tracks against tougher competition, which could mean this softer contest suits him well.
Best record at this trip (2 from 6)
Market favourite (3.4)
Trainer Quotes
May 2025
"He's a half-brother to Rogue Lightning. He won a novice under a penalty at Doncaster last month and that form looks strong. He might go to Newmarket next for a valuable handicap a week on Saturday. He's got a wonderful attitude and was very resolute at Doncaster - he really put his head down and battled, which is a trait you love to see. He was very laid-back last year and green and backward at Windsor when he made his debut, but the penny has really dropped now. He's done a bit of work with Invictus Gold and I hope he can be a nice flagbearer for the yard throughout the year. 14-05-25"
Compare Odds
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Just one win from 14 career races tells you this horse finds ways to finish close without actually winning — five placed finishes in total, but the killer blow has been hard to land. His last three runs have all been fifth or fourth place finishes, so consistency is not in question; converting that into a win is. Rated 74 here, he sits four pounds below the favourite and lacks the course form of Emperor Caradoc or the trip record of Sixtygeesbaby.
Mid-range in the market (5.5)
Compare Odds
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The standout course specialist in this field — he has won over this exact track and distance before, and his record on dry ground is strong at three wins from eight attempts on similar conditions. He finished a close second here at Nottingham just 17 days ago, which is as relevant a piece of recent form as you will find in this race. His official rating of 75 puts him level with the favourite on paper, and he brings more Nottingham experience than most of his rivals.
Has won over this course and distance
Best record on this ground (3 from 8)
Trainer Quotes
Aug 2025
"He's won twice this year and there's a slight suspicion he's better in a smaller field, where he can boss them. He ran well at York but it was probably too competitive for him. He's probably better at 6f than 5f, he travels a little better. 14-08-25"
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
Like Emperor Caradoc, Jenever has won over this course and distance before — making these two the only horses in the field with that specific box ticked. The worry is his recent form, which reads 8th, 7th, 5th, 6th, 5th across his last five runs — a horse that appears to be well below his best right now. He also has a five-week gap since his last race, which adds a layer of uncertainty heading into today.
Has won over this course and distance
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
The data flags that Logi Bear is stepping up three class levels here, which is a significant ask for a horse who finished ninth, beaten twelve and a half lengths, at York just 24 days ago. He does have a single win to his name from a high-level race at Newmarket, but his form since then has deteriorated sharply, and today he faces dry ground conditions where his record gives little encouragement. Hard to make a positive case on current evidence.
Steps up 3 classes
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
The youngest and least experienced horse in the field with just five career races, but her win rate of one in five is technically the best in this field — a stat that sounds better than it probably is given the small sample size. She has shown she handles distances around six furlongs well, which is the one genuine positive to take into this race. At odds of 34, the market is not convinced, and her recent form details are incomplete, which makes it hard to build a strong case.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 58 career races compared to a field average of 24 — but also the lowest rated, sitting 14 pounds below the field average and carrying the lightest weight as a result. He has never won on dry ground in six attempts, which is a direct concern given today's conditions at Nottingham. With six wins from 58 races, he is a horse who keeps showing up, but the numbers and the ground make it difficult to see him threatening here.
Lowest rated, 14lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Most experienced (58 runs, field avg 24)
Compare Odds
TrackLab Insight
The most significant flag here is one that cannot be ignored: Southern Warrior has never raced on dry ground before, which is exactly the condition he faces today. All seven of his previous races came on different surfaces, so nobody — including his trainer — truly knows how he will handle this. He was also beaten over 17 lengths last time out at Sandown, and at odds of 41, the market has drawn its own conclusions.
Never raced on dry ground
Compare Odds
Your pick
—
—
What you'd get back
—
Odds
—
Bet type
Win (they finish 1st)
How much do you want to bet?
Your bet
£5
Your profit if they win
—
Total back in your pocket
—
How do odds work?
The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
Paid out by the bookmaker, not TrackLab.
Choose your bookmaker