Nottingham

The highest-rated horse in the field at 81, sitting 3lbs above the average, and she's already won half her four races — a remarkable return that puts her rivals to shame on raw numbers. She bounced back from a poor run at Sandown to win at Newmarket last time, so the form is live. Matched up almost identically with our selection Distant Shore on official ratings, the market has her as the clear second choice.

The only horse in this field to have actually won over today's mile trip, which gives her a clear edge on paper. She's coming here off a win at Yarmouth 19 days ago, so the confidence should be high — but her record on dry ground is a concern: three attempts, zero wins. Those massive odds drift from near-evens suggest something has spooked the market.

Arrives here with three straight top-three finishes and the best win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 3 races — which makes her form the most consistent of any runner today. She won at Beverley just 17 days ago, so she's fresh and in form. The slight unknown is whether she fully stays today's mile trip; her record suggests she's been at her best over slightly longer distances.

She has finished in the top two in every single race she has ever run, which is a remarkable record of consistency even if the wins have been limited to one. The problem is she carries the lowest weight and is rated 3lbs below the field average, meaning the handicapper views her as the least accomplished horse here. At 12.0, the market agrees she has the most to find against these rivals.