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Patagonia Girl

Patagonia Girl has made Chester her personal domain. The 4-year-old has won three of her eight races at the course—a win rate that puts her in rare air—and she was just back in the winner's circle there this week, earning praise from trainer Hugo Palmer for a perfectly judged ride by jockey Jack Nicholls. Palmer, who runs a yard at Malpas in Cheshire that has already sent out 67 winners this season, spoke after the race about how well the horse had performed and his hopes that she might pick up black type—a racing term for significant prizes—in the future.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
4 years old
Sex
Filly
Colour
Bay
Father
Australia
Mother
Katiesheidinlisa
Owner
D R Passant E Spragg
Official rating
80

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
18
Career races
4
Wins
22.2%
Win rate
avg ~10%
44.4%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
9 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

Across her career, Patagonia Girl has won 4 of her 17 races, a win rate of roughly one in every four outings. She's a fast-ground specialist, which matters because it tells you exactly where she runs best: on dry, quick ground rather than in the mud. In Class 4 races—competitive but not elite—she's won once from three tries, showing she can handle proper opposition. Her recent form has been mixed: she's picked up four places across her last six runs, suggesting inconsistency, but that Chester victory last week proves she can still produce on the track when it matters.

Palmer sees room for improvement. Speaking in October, she mentioned that she's been looking like she wants to grow through the year and pointed to her pedigree—she's by Australia out of a Camelot mare—as opening up interesting options for her future. That kind of talk from a trainer who's already pushing out winners at a serious clip suggests there's genuine belief that better days lie ahead for this chestnut filly. She's active and back in training, which means you're likely to see her racing again soon.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Course specialist at Chester: 3 wins from 8 starts (38%)
✔ Well suited by 1m6f – 2m distances: 33% win rate

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Ok
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
📏 Race distance
1M6F – 2M
Loves
1M1F – 1M2F
Ok
1M3F – 1M4F
Ok
🏅 Race level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Loves
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, tight
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Loves
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
9 Oct
7th
Newmarket
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 17 runners
19 Sep
🏆 Won
Chester
1m3f – 1m4f · Heavy · 11 runners
21 Aug
7th
York
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 17 runners
2 Aug
4th
Chester
1m6f – 2m · Good · 7 runners
10 Jul
8th
Chester
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 8 runners
27 Jun
5th
Chester
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 8 runners
30 May
7th
Carlisle
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Firm · 8 runners
8 May
🏆 Won
Chester
1m6f – 2m · Good · 16 runners
11 Apr
2nd
Great Yarmouth
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 13 runners
30 Jul
11th
Goodwood
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
50%
Win rate
1/2
Wins / rides
100%
Win rate
1/1
Wins / rides
Jack Nicholls(3)
100%
Win rate
1/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Chester
Tight
8 3 wins, 2 thirds, 3 other 19 Sep 37.5%
Kempton Park
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 30 Oct 0%
Salisbury
Undulating
1 1 win 10 Jun 100%
Newmarket
Galloping
1 1 other 9 Oct 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
1 1 other 30 Jul 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
1 1 other 30 May 0%
Great Yarmouth
Galloping
1 1 second 11 Apr 0%
Carlisle
Undulating
1 1 other 30 May 0%
York
Galloping
1 1 other 21 Aug 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
1 1 other 21 Nov 0%