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Newbury

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Ire-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Starts in
Awaiting result
Speed race on the flat About 7 furlongs Mostly firm ground Mid-level race 15 runners £8100 prize
Turf track
TrackLab's Top Pick
25
Strong chance
Good Value at 18/5
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
20+ Strong pick 12-19 Solid chance 6-11 In the mix Below 6 Outsider How scores work
W. Buick · C. Appleby · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Debut
25
Good Value
First run (debut)
TrackLab Insight
The race favourite at 2.3 despite never having raced before — that tells you how highly regarded this horse is behind the scenes. Charlie Appleby and William Buick are one of the most successful trainer-jockey partnerships in British racing, winning roughly once in every three races together, and their judgement in running a horse commands serious respect. The only concern is stall 11, which sits in the less favourable middle section of the draw at Newbury.
Racecourse debut Market favourite (2.3)
J. Leavy · B. Meehan · 2yo · 9st 4lb · OR 90
Form
22
Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field with three races run, and the record shows genuine consistency — two runner-up finishes either side of a rough day at Ascot. That makes Cilician one of the most proven performers in this largely inexperienced lineup, and at odds of 5.5 it's the second-shortest price in the race. The mid-draw (stall 10) is not ideal at Newbury, but the solid form record gives this horse a clear edge over most of its rivals.
Lightly raced (3 career races) 3 straight top-3 finishes
N. Callan · T. Clover · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Form
12
Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Just one race under the belt — a fifth-place finish at Thirsk 47 days ago — which tells us almost nothing at this early stage of a career. The gap since that run is worth noting; 47 days is a decent break for a two-year-old with so little experience. Draw 7 is solid, right in the low-draw sweet spot at Newbury, but the limited evidence makes this hard to assess with any confidence.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
K. Shoemark · E. Walker · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Debut
9.5
First run (debut)
TrackLab Insight
The best draw in the race — stall 1 — which at Newbury over seven furlongs is a genuine asset, and the market has this as one of the shorter-priced debut runners at 12.0. No race experience to go on, but Mehmas is a sire known for producing horses that are quick and ready to perform early, which suits a two-year-old race like this. Ed Walker and Kieran Shoemark have combined for 47 wins together, making this a competent team for a first outing.
Racecourse debut
O. Murphy · A. Balding · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Debut
8.4
First run (debut)
TrackLab Insight
No race experience whatsoever, so this is purely a leap of faith — but it's a leap backed by a powerful combination of trainer and jockey. Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy have won together nearly once in every five races as a pair, which is an excellent rate. Draw 8 is also the sweet spot here, sitting right at the top end of the low-draw zone that statistically dominates at Newbury over seven furlongs.
Racecourse debut
S. Levey · R. Hannon · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Form Track
6.4
Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Two races in, still searching for a first win, but the improvement from sixth to third in the space of eleven days is a positive sign — this horse is heading in the right direction. Draw 2 is one of the best in the field given the strong low-draw advantage at this course and distance. Richard Hannon's team has sent out 118 winners this season, so this horse arrives in good hands.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
10 Primal
S. Osborne · A. Balding · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Form
4.6
Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Two races, two finishes outside the places — a sixth and a fourth — and now drawn in stall 15, the highest number in the field and in the least favourable draw zone at Newbury. The Andrew Balding stable is in excellent form with over 200 winners this season, which is the main reason to take notice. But the form so far and the unfavourable draw make this a tough sell.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
J. Callan(3) · G. Boughey · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Debut
4.2
First run (debut)
TrackLab Insight
No race experience to draw on, so this is entirely an unknown quantity on debut. Draw 3 is one of the best in the field statistically — low draws have a clear edge at Newbury over seven furlongs. George Boughey's yard has shown it can produce sharp two-year-olds, but at 34.0 the market isn't expecting fireworks on a first outing.
Racecourse debut
R. Ryan · R. Beckett · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Debut
1.6
First run (debut)
TrackLab Insight
Another debut runner with no form to assess, but the pedigree is genuinely eye-catching — Mohaather was a brilliant miler and the dam is by Dubawi, one of the most decorated sires in European racing history. Ralph Beckett and Rossa Ryan have won together nearly once in every five races as a combination, which is a solid record. The concern is stall 13, which sits in the mid-draw range that statistically underperforms at Newbury.
Racecourse debut
14 Revoked
G. Dobie · C. Cox · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Debut
1.5
First run (debut)
TrackLab Insight
No prior form to assess — this is a first appearance on a racecourse — but the breeding from No Nay Never is worth flagging: that sire is one of Europe's most reliable sources of fast, early-developing two-year-olds. Stall 5 is one of the best draws in the race, sitting comfortably in the low-draw zone that has the strongest record at Newbury over seven furlongs. At 51.0 the market is sceptical, but the draw and pedigree give some reason for interest.
Racecourse debut
P. Dobbs · R. Hannon · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Form
0.7
Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Two runs, two fourth-place finishes — and the most recent at Salisbury was beaten by essentially nothing, making it an extremely close call for a podium spot. That near-miss is the most encouraging detail in this profile and suggests a win or place could be just around the corner. Draw 4 is excellent — right in the low-draw zone that dominates at Newbury — and Richard Hannon's team has been in fine form all season.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Debut
0.4
First run (debut)
TrackLab Insight
A first-time runner with no form to speak of, and the market has made its feelings clear — odds of 81.0 make this the joint-longest price in the field. The draw in stall 6 is decent, sitting comfortably in the statistically favoured low-draw zone at Newbury. Beyond that, there is very little to work with here.
Racecourse debut
T. Heard · R. Hannon · 2yo · 9st 4lb
Debut
0.4
First run (debut)
TrackLab Insight
A debut runner with no form to go on, and at odds of 101.0 the longest price in the entire field — the market has essentially written this one off. Stall 14 is in the mid-draw range that statistically underperforms at Newbury, which doesn't help. Richard Hannon's yard is in strong form, but this horse faces a tough ask on a first outing from an unfavourable position.
Racecourse debut
O. Carmichael(7) · E. Johnson Houghton · 2yo · 9st 8lb
Form
0.1
Won 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
One of only a handful of horses here with actual race experience, and that experience is a mixed bag: a win on debut at Brighton followed by a distant 11th at Kempton. The big swing in form is hard to ignore, and drawing in the middle of the field (stall 12) isn't ideal at Newbury over this distance, where low draws have a clear statistical edge. With a 7lb claimer in the saddle and that Kempton run fresh in the memory, this one needs to bounce back sharply.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
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