Limerick
·
John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle
Starts in
4h 18min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40%+ Very strong chance
20–39% Strong chance
12–19% Solid chance
6–11% Could surprise
Under 6% Long shot
How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance, as a percentage. The scores in a race add up to 100%.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in a place. It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
11
Duce Bigalow
£1 wins £1.88 · 20% chance
Today's race is over 3m. That distance looks right for this horse
20%
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 15/8
£1 wins £1.88 · 20% chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.88 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 3m. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- C. Ryan wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 3/1, the seven-year-old won at Down Royal 189 days ago but has since managed only a third-place finish. His record on soft and yielding ground is blank (zero wins from seven combined), and the favourite tag sits oddly on a horse with just one win from 14 races over a wide canvas.
Market favourite (3/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With an average finish of 2.7 in recent runs, this horse keeps finishing close to the front. It would not need much luck to win.
- Today's race is over 3m. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- Mr J. Dunne has a 6.4% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated among the field at 110, but the raw form is unconvincing: six races without a win and never tested on soft ground before this marathon test. The recent pattern of third-place finishes shows competitive enough but not sharp enough, and stepping up to 3 miles in the mud is a significant ask for a horse with no experience in these conditions.
Top rated by 5lbs
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 3m race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- This is a 12-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-3 finishes including a narrow second just 16 days ago at Gowran Park show recent sharpness, but the 11-race career with zero wins is the hard reality. Jockey-trainer combination has won three from seven together, which offers some hope, though the mare remains without a breakthrough after a long grind.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 3m race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner in the field with a victory at Limerick three months ago, and a win rate of roughly one in five (18%) across 17 races puts her among the most reliable here. Recent form is patchy—mostly mid-field finishes—but the track knowledge and proven ability to win here count for something in a wide-open contest.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 3m is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- A prize fund of £7,200 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- 1 win from 5 runs at this track. When a horse likes a course, it often runs well there again.
TrackLab Insight
Raced at Limerick just yesterday (beaten 7th) and now turns out again after just one day—an unusual ask for any horse. Never tested on soft ground and has won nothing for 12 months since breaking through at Limerick in October; the quick turnaround and ground conditions stack against her.
Never raced on soft ground
Runs again after just 1 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- 3m is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- N. Lee has a 3.3% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Best career win rate in the field at roughly one in five (20%), with a recent win at Sligo 60 days ago showing she knows how to find the line. The risk: she has won two from three on fast ground but zero from five on good-to-yielding—and soft ground here is a step into unfamiliar territory for this horse.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A 3m race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- A 3% career win rate for Mr J. G. Murphy. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Fresh off a career-best win at Tramore 181 days ago, the five-year-old has won one from nine races but was soundly beaten (7th, beaten 15.8L) just 12 days ago at Galway. The form is inconsistent, and a poor record on yielding ground and right-handed galloping tracks raises questions about his readiness for this test.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Today's race is over 3m. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- A 2.2% record at this course for B. M McMahon. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Relatively inexperienced with just eight career races and no wins to show, Strange Currency is also the least proven at this level. Three straight seventh-place finishes including yesterday tell the full story: this horse is outmatched and likely to remain so in a marathon handicap.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Today's race is over 3m. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- N. Stokes wins 4.1% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Absent for 133 days—the longest absence in the field—and returns to soft ground where he has won nothing from six attempts. His one career victory came on good-to-yielding ground, yet he's saddled with cheekpieces and tongue strap, suggesting issues to manage. At 33/1 despite a ratings edge, the market has sized him up correctly: soft at Limerick plays against him.
Absent 133 days (longest in field)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Today's race is over 3m. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- P. O'Flynn has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Ten years old with just one win from 18 races, he's raced 57 days ago and holds a poor record on yielding ground—a material concern given the soft conditions here. Editorial opinion ranks him top, but recent form reads 4-5-pulled up, and soft ground will test a horse that only prospers on fast surfaces.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- 3m is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- This is a 12-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Six races, no wins, but three third-place finishes from her last five starts suggest she's competitive at the right level. The 37-day absence and a 6th-place finish before that are minor concerns, though the recent consistency points to a horse pitched at fair value rather than outclassed.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 3m race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- B. Mortell wins 1.1% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest-rated runner, 25 pounds below field average, and carries the lowest weight—classic dumping ground for a five-year-old with 16 races and zero wins. Recent form shows 8th, 6th, 9th: he is being outclassed at this level and offers little prospect of troubling the frame at 66/1.
Lowest rated, 25lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field