Run For The Border

The most recent form is unforgiving. Looking at the last six outings, there is a 7th, a 6th, a 2nd place finish, then a 10th, a 3rd and a 4th. That second-place effort shows the horse can still get close to winning, but the inconsistency—bouncing between decent efforts and well-beaten runs—points to a horse that has not quite figured out how to be competitive at its current level. With just one win from 16 races, Run For The Border is winning roughly 1 in every 17 attempts, which is the mathematics of a horse that gets into the mix occasionally but does not often have the finishing power required. The top-3 finishes, five in total, represent about 31 percent of its races, so there is evidence of running well enough to feature, but something goes wrong in the decisive moments.

Trained by John Patrick Ryan at Templemore in County Tipperary, Run For The Border is part of a yard that has been sending out winners steadily this season—21 so far—which suggests the training is solid. The horse was active as recently as yesterday, so it remains in work and is clearly still being given opportunities to break that losing run. Whether this season brings another trip to the winner's enclosure remains to be seen, but the twelve-month drought suggests that second win will not come easily.