Limerick
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STL Logistics Handicap Steeplechase
Starts in
5h 18min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40%+ Very strong chance
20–39% Strong chance
12–19% Solid chance
6–11% Could surprise
Under 6% Long shot
How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance, as a percentage. The scores in a race add up to 100%.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in a place. It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 9/4
£1 wins £2.25 · 23% chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.25 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. O'Keeffe wins 8.3% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- D. O'Keeffe wins 10.2% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite and top-rated by 6lbs, but he's been absent for 186 days — longest break in the field — and arrives back off the back of a 5th place at Cheltenham. The real concern: he has zero wins from three races on soft ground, which is exactly what he faces here at Limerick.
Top rated by 6lbs
Absent 186 days (longest in field)
Market favourite (11/4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- P. Enright has a 6.2% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
TrackLab Insight
The standout form horse — won at Sligo 18 days ago and Killarney 59 days before that, boasting the best career win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 4. The problem is stark: he has no wins from three attempts on yielding ground, and today's soft surface poses real questions.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 12.8% overall win rate for E. Bolger. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This is a 9-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- There is little recent data for E. Bolger's stable. It is hard to judge their current form.
TrackLab Insight
Marked as underrated by our model at 4/1, and he's been knocking on the door with two runner-up finishes in recent months. However, he's been idle for 156 days and carries a blank record on soft ground — a genuine problem here with no wins from three attempts on the surface.
2nd in the market (4/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- B. Connell wins 28.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Has had 44 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Nine years old but showing encouraging form — won at Roscommon 75 days ago and was only just touched off at Kilbeggan 44 days back. The concern is his record on soft ground and anything yielding: he has no wins from 8 combined attempts on these surfaces.
Mid-range in the market (11/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- Has had 23 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Rated 16lbs below the field average and carrying the lightest weight, this ten-year-old has found soft ground a barrier throughout his career (zero wins from combined attempts on soft and soft-to-heavy). His best recent finish came at Listowel 23 days ago (2nd), but the data on soft ground is a hard-to-ignore problem here.
Lowest rated, 16lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Best record at this trip (2 from 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 6 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- P. A. Fahy has won 6.5% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- P. A. Fahy wins 6.5% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Sixteen races into his career with just one win and a 6% win rate tells its own story — this is a horse who rarely finds the winner's enclosure. He's also been idle for 133 days and carries concerning blanks on both soft and yielding ground, both relevant to today's conditions.
Among the more experienced (16 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse is suited to this Chase Turf race. A horse in its best type of race can just focus on running.
- A 2m 4½f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- P. J. Rothwell wins only 4.3% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field with 36 races to his name, but his recent form is poor (6th at Listowel just 22 days ago, beaten 23 lengths). He also has zero wins from four attempts on soft ground and struggles on right-handed galloping tracks like Limerick.
Most experienced (36 runs, field avg 18)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- 9 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Has not raced for 203 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Has been absent for 178 days after pulling up at Perth, and his recent run before that (8th, beaten 47 lengths) suggests he's lost form. A pairing of Eoghan Finegan and Gordon Elliott for the first time offers no established record together to rely on.
Among the more experienced (16 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- Handles this ground well, with 25% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- There is £30,000 in prize money. A small prize can mean weaker rivals, but it may also mean the horse is running below its best level.
TrackLab Insight
Dramatically unfancied at 33/1 despite a rating of 129, yet his form on soft ground stands out — the only horse in this field with a win from four attempts on the surface. Recent runs at Kilbeggan have been poor (12th and a fall), which suggests he may have stepped up in class here.
Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating