Limerick
·
PwC Mares Maiden Hurdle
Starts in
3h 26min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40%+ Very strong chance
20–39% Strong chance
12–19% Solid chance
6–11% Could surprise
Under 6% Long shot
How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance, as a percentage. The scores in a race add up to 100%.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in a place. It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 4/7
£1 wins 57p · 48% chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.57 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. de Bromhead wins 13.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- An 8.3% win rate at this course for D. O'Keeffe. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite with a victory at Galway just 41 days ago, but form reads backwards: she won, then finished third, then fifth yesterday. A major concern is that she has never raced on soft ground like this—all three career runs came on better surfaces.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Market favourite (10/11)
7
Kimi de Mai
£1 wins £1.63 · 28% chance
A 21.6% overall win rate for W. P. Mullins
28%
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.63 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 21.6% overall win rate for W. P. Mullins. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- W. P. Mullins has a good 29.1% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by 16 lengths and on a run of three straight top-3 finishes, including two seconds beaten by half a length or less—this is a horse that genuinely looks ready to break through. The concern is the same one that's plagued her throughout nine races: she hasn't won yet, despite being so close so often.
Top rated by 16lbs
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- Has been off the track for 220 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
- P. Enright has a 6.2% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner here—all three runs have been at Limerick, and she's finished in the top 3 every time, including a second place and a near-miss third. However, she hasn't raced in 220 days and has never tackled soft ground, which could catch her out.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 6.9% overall win rate for E. McNamara. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Eight races without a win, though two second-place finishes suggest she can get close—most recently beaten just half a length. The rating of 98 is second-best in the field, but the lack of consistency is a concern: she's only finished in the top two twice in her last six runs.
2nd highest rated (OR 98)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. Nolan has won 9.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- S. Flanagan has won 8.0% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Also a four-year-old racecourse debutante with no prior form and bloodlines that speak to solid racing stock rather than something special. Trained by Paul Nolan, who also trains Coffeemorninggirls, but being a debut runner in a competitive field is a significant disadvantage.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finished 2nd in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- This horse is happy on Good To Yielding ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- A 0% record at this course for P. John Flood. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Three races without a win but two top-3 finishes, with the most recent a second place just 87 days ago—proof she can get close. The worry is the 87-day gap since that run and the fact she has never raced on soft ground.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
1%
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Last raced 14 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
- Today's ground is Good To Yielding, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- L. Walshe wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced runner here with 26 races under her belt, but wins roughly 1 in 13 attempts and hasn't raced on soft ground before. Her two wins both came at Wolverhampton, not here, and a seventh-place finish at Killarney just 14 days ago shows she's not in top form now.
Never raced on soft ground
Most experienced (26 runs, field avg 5)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 13)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse is happy on Good To Yielding ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- Set to carry 161 lbs. In racing every pound counts, and this horse is not carrying too much.
- A 4.9% career win rate for D. M O'Brien. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Made her racecourse debut yesterday and finished tenth—zero form to build on here. At 66/1 and with just one run to assess, there's no evidence she belongs in a race like this yet.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £201.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's ground is Good To Yielding, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- A weight of 161 lbs is manageable. A lighter load helps in the closing stages.
- A 0% career win rate for R. Lane. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
One run, one heavy defeat (fifteenth, beaten 147 lengths at Galway 41 days ago), and has never raced on soft ground. The trainer's yard has winners this season, but this horse is a complete unknown quantity at the highest odds in the field.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- 195 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
- M. Barry wins 5% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Only one race under her belt (a fifth-place finish yesterday), making her a complete unknown at six years old. The trainer is a modest operation with just one winner this season, so there's very limited evidence to go on.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Set to carry 161 lbs. In racing every pound counts, and this horse is not carrying too much.
- Has been off the track for 248 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
- A. McGuinness wins 5.9% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Two races without placing, pulled up at Limerick 293 days ago, and hasn't raced on soft ground before—now returning after 248 days away, the longest break in the field. There's nothing in her record to suggest she can make an impact here.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Absent 248 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 9.2% overall win rate for P. Nolan. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Set to carry 160 lbs. In racing every pound counts, and this horse is not carrying too much.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Making her racecourse debut as a four-year-old—coming to the track later than most horses in this field suggests the trainer took time with her development. Zero form to assess, and debut runners rarely deliver results in a field like this.
Racecourse debut