Kilbeggan

At ten years old and 40 races into its career, this horse keeps showing up and keeps getting placed — 14 places from those 40 runs tells you it is competitive. However, it has never won on soft ground or anything similar in 10 attempts, and today's jockey has never ridden for the trainer before, so there is no established partnership to lean on.

One of only a handful of course winners in this field, which counts for something at a tight, turning track like Kilbeggan. However, it hasn't raced in nearly seven months, its last three runs all ended with a pulled-up or a distant finish, and it has never won on soft ground in four attempts.

Carries the lowest weight in the field, which gives it an advantage in a handicap, and it is one of the few horses here with a positive record on soft ground. The last win was over three years ago and a pulled-up last time out is a worry, but at 15-1 it is at least an interesting outsider for those who like a each-way punt on a course-and-distance specialist.

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 45 races compared to a field average of 24 — and one of only two runners who has won over this course and distance. At 11 years old the spark looks to have gone, though: the last six runs include two pulled-ups and an 8th place, and it has never won on ground this soft or wetter in 18 combined attempts.

The only positive here is a win over this course and distance — but that record looks hollow when you see it finished 12th at this very track just 16 days ago, beaten by over 74 lengths. Has never won on ground this soft or wetter in 17 attempts across different conditions, which makes today a tough ask.

Has been off the track for nearly a year — the longest absence in the field — and that alone makes it very hard to back with confidence. All of its wins have come on faster, drier ground, and it has never won on soft or similar conditions in eight attempts; today's slightly wet surface is squarely against it.

One win from 19 races in its career, and that came nearly four and a half years ago — making it one of the most lightly achieved horses in this field. Returns after an absence of nearly 11 months with a jockey-trainer partnership that has yet to win together in 21 attempts; there is very little here to work with.