Kempton
·
Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap
Awaiting result
Polytrack surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
18+ | Gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware.org Ad: we earn commission if you join a bookmaker via our links.
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 10/3
£1 wins £3.33 · 22 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 15.7% overall win rate for B. Loughnane. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A 9.1% overall win rate for T. Carroll. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 6.6% record at this course for T. Carroll. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite, and there is a solid case for it — two of its three career wins have come at Kempton, and it has a decent record on slow ground (wins roughly 1 in 3 races in those conditions). The cheekpieces are a new addition today, which trainers often use to sharpen a horse's focus, and this is the right trip for it. The concern is a run of three poor efforts coming in, so it needs to bounce back.
Course specialist (2 wins from 6 here)
Best record at this trip (2 from 6)
Market favourite (4.33)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Kirby has a good 25% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has had 21 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
Travel Agent's best form has all come at Lingfield, not Kempton — its excellent ground record is built on normal conditions rather than the slow surface we have today. Two fifth-place finishes in a row at Yarmouth suggest it is not firing at its peak, and there is nothing in the data to suggest this course or these conditions play to its strengths.
Mid-range in the market (13.0)
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- A 10.3% overall win rate for A. Rawlinson. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A 5.9% record at this course for E. Smyth-Osbourne. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
This is the only horse in the field that has won exclusively at Kempton — all three of its career victories have come here, and it has won nearly 1 in 2 races at this track. The ground suits too, with the same record on these slow conditions. The problem is recent form: a 10th last time out and a market drift to 23/1 suggest it is well short of its best right now.
Course specialist (3 wins from 7 here)
Best record on this ground (3 from 7)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- An 8.7% overall win rate for P. Bradley. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- J. Ryan has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Our ratings make this the one to beat, and it arrives in good heart after a near-miss — beaten just a neck at Ffos Las nine days ago. It has the best career win rate in the field (roughly 1 in 4) and has won twice at Kempton before, though a new jockey on board today is a minor unknown. Back off the same rating as when it almost won last time, this is the logical selection.
Course specialist (2 wins from 5 here)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
£1 wins £7 · 11 Could surprise
Dr R. Newland & Jamie Insole has a good 33.3% record here
11
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dr R. Newland & Jamie Insole has a good 33.3% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Has won 3 times over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
- Its average finish over the last three races is 4. That is too far back. Its results have not been steady lately.
TrackLab Insight
Two wins from five visits to Kempton is an impressive course record, and slow ground suits it well — it has won 2 of 5 races in these conditions. Recent form shows consistency without a win, but a second and third in the last two runs suggests it is building into form. A genuine contender that the market has priced at 5/1.
Course specialist (2 wins from 5 here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Dawson wins 10.8% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- A low win rate on this ground from 7 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- M. Loughnane wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
A consistent performer across 28 races, but there is a glaring problem here: this horse has never won at Kempton in five attempts, and its record on slow ground reads zero wins from seven tries. The editorial picks it as a value option, but the data tells a cautious story for this specific race.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- G. & Josh Moore wins only 1.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in the field yet to win a race from 15 attempts, which is the bluntest summary of its chances here. Its two most recent visits to Kempton produced an 11th and a 7th, and form across the board has been modest. Hard to make a case for it against more accomplished rivals.
Winless from 15 career races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Baker has won 11.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- An 11.7% overall win rate for G. Baker. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- G. Baker has a 6.2% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Drawn in stall 11, which is in the worst part of the draw at this course and distance — horses in that zone win less than half as often as those drawn low. It has also failed to win on this surface in five previous attempts, and back-to-back fifth places suggest it is struggling for momentum. The draw alone makes life difficult.
Mid-range in the market (11.0)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With a 10.3% win rate overall, L. Morris is one of the more dependable riders.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- A 0% record at this course for S. Dow. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Drawn widest of all in stall 12, which is the worst possible position at this course and distance — the data shows high draws here win at less than half the rate of low draws. It also carries the lowest rating in the field, five pounds below average, and has never won on this surface across ten attempts. Too many factors working against it today.
Lowest rated, 4lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- A 7.6% career win rate for M. Loughnane. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field with 35 races to its name, but experience has not translated into results — a win rate of roughly 1 in 12, and six consecutive finishes outside the top three. It has also never won on slow ground and the jockey-trainer combination has no wins together from eight attempts. The numbers point in the wrong direction.
Among the more experienced (35 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- An 11.2% overall win rate for R. Havlin. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A 7.7% record at this course for A. Balding. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse in the field with just eight races, and it has been off the track for over five months — by far the longest absence of any runner today. Its sole career win came on different ground conditions, and returning from a long break into a competitive 12-runner race makes this a tough ask.
Absent 153 days (longest in field)
£1 wins £33 · 2 Long shot
Handles this ground well, with 20% of its races won on it
2
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 20% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- With an 11.9% win rate overall, D. Muscutt is one of the more dependable riders.
- P. Chamings wins only 2.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Six career wins is a solid tally, but they have all come at Lingfield — this horse is a course specialist there in the same way Newsreader is at Kempton. Nothing in the data suggests it carries that form to Kempton, and two poor recent efforts at Windsor and Lingfield have not helped its case. Hard to fancy away from its happy hunting ground.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)