Brazen Idol

Yet there are signs worth noticing. Brazen Idol has won 6 of 30 races overall — a respectable 20% win rate — and those wins came when conditions were right. The horse loves wet or muddy ground, winning 2 of 5 races (40%) on that surface, and is a genuine specialist at Kempton Park, where it has won twice from five attempts. Crucially, Pat Cosgrave has ridden the horse to three wins from five outings together, a 60% win rate that suggests there is real chemistry between jockey and horse. Under John Ryan's training at Newmarket, Brazen Idol clearly has a trainer who knows how to get the best out of it.

The trouble is that Brazen Idol has drifted down the grades, now competing mostly in Class 5 races where it has managed just one win from eight starts. At seven years old, with nothing in the bank for nearly three years, this horse feels like it is running out of chances. Whether a return to Kempton on soft ground with Cosgrave back in the saddle could spark a revival remains to be seen — but the longer the drought continues, the harder it becomes to believe one is coming.