Brazen Idol

Across 26 career races, Brazen Idol has won 6 and placed in 13 others — that is a win rate of around 1 in every 4 races, and it has finished in the money in nearly three-quarters of all its starts, which points to a horse that is competitive and honest even when it does not quite get its nose in front. Most of its racing has come in Class 5 company — the bread-and-butter level of the sport — where it has won just 1 from 8, or about 1 in 8 races, which is modest. The Kempton wins and the soft, wet ground form (2 wins from 5 races on muddy conditions, a 40% conversion) suggest a horse that performs well above its everyday level when the planets align just right.

The partnership with jockey Pat Cosgrave is one of those facts that makes you sit up. Together they have won 3 from 5 races — that is 60%, which is a remarkable hit rate by any measure. Clearly Cosgrave reads this horse well, or the horse responds to him in a way it simply does not with others.

John Ryan's yard has been in decent form this season, sending out 11 winners, which means Brazen Idol is sitting in a stable with some momentum behind it. That matters, because the horse has not won for 31 months — its last victory came at Kempton on 6 January 2024 — and recent form of 5-2-7-7-2-5 is patchy at best. The two placed efforts in there show the ability is not gone, but the wins have dried up. Whether this is a horse that has peaked or one that is simply waiting for Kempton, Pat Cosgrave, and a soft winter's day to arrive at the same time is the interesting question.