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Kelso

·
Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
15h 37min
Jumps race · big fences · weighted to be fair Underrated horse: Newtown Rambler About 2.1 miles Good ground Mid-level race 5 runners £8,450 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd, at 1/4 odds
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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4 Smoke Trail
P. Wadge · L. Russell & Michael Scudamore · 5yo · 10st 13lb · Official rating 120
£1 wins £1.63 · 39 Strong chance
A 15.8% win rate at this course for L. Russell & Michael Scudamore
Freshness Form
39
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 13/8
£1 wins £1.63 · 39 Strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.63 back.

How odds work
✓ Trainer wins at this course ✓ Horse record at this distance ✓ Field size
Back after 187 days off Won 1 of last 5 Won here 2 times
Why this score
  • A 15.8% win rate at this course for L. Russell & Michael Scudamore. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
  • This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner in the field, with two wins from two races at Kelso — a huge advantage for this particular race. At five years old he's proven he thrives over long distances (50% win rate at 2m or further), but he's had a six-month break since his last Kelso victory and his form on shorter trips is much weaker.
Only course winner (2 from 2 here)
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Back after 118 days off Won 4 of last 5 Likes this ground (wins 40% of runs)
Why this score
  • 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • O. Brown wins 38.5% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
  • This type of ground has not suited the horse: 5 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite with the best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 3 races, and he's genuinely flying right now — four wins from the last six outings. His record on normal ground (2 wins from 5) is second only to his form on soft terrain, and the recent surge in form suggests he's still improving at age seven.
Best record on this ground (2 from 5) Best career win rate in field (1 in 3) Market favourite (2/1)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.

How odds work
Back after 152 days off Won 2 of last 5 Raced here before Likes this ground (wins 40% of runs) Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • This is a 5-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • M. Hammond wins 9.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • Up against stronger rivals than before. Moving up to a harder race tests whether a horse is improving.
TrackLab Insight
A consistent performer with five career wins and strong recent form: two wins and two second-place finishes from the last five races show real momentum. At eight years old he's still delivering, though the standout weakness here is his poor record at Kelso specifically — just one win from eight starts on this course.
One of the more successful in the field (5 career wins)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Back after 185 days off Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before Likes this ground (wins 25% of runs)
Why this score
  • A 5-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • L. J. Morgan has a good 18.5% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
  • The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
The top-rated horse here by 3lbs, with a Class 1 win at Ayr in April and a strong record at this distance (winning 1 in 4 times over 2m 1f). However, he's had a rough few months — two poor runs at Perth and Cheltenham either side of a fall — and hasn't raced competitively since late March, raising questions about where he stands after that long lay-off.
Top rated by 3lbs Best record at this trip (1 from 4)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Back after 256 days off Won 1 of last 5 Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • 5 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
  • This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
The longest lay-off in the field at 256 days and the lowest-rated horse here, with just one win from seven career races and nothing since a poor effort at Ayr eight-plus months ago. He carries the least weight, but has never raced on normal ground in his career, making it genuinely hard to gauge how he'll handle conditions or if he still has competitive sharpness at age nine.
Lowest rated, 8lbs below average Carries lowest weight in field Never raced on normal ground Absent 256 days (longest in field)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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