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Doncaster

·
Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1)
Starts in
12h 42min
Flat race · no jumps Underrated horse: Burning Up About 1 mile Very wet, muddy ground Elite-level race 7 runners £155,952 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd, at 1/4 odds
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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6 Noble Exhibit
R. Moore · A. O'Brien · 2yo · 9st 3lb
£1 wins £1.38 · 40 Very strong chance
This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse
Form
40
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 11/8
£1 wins £1.38 · 40 Very strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.38 back.

How odds work
✓ Field size ✓ Trainer overall starts ✓ Jockey starts at this course
Won 2 of last 5
Why this score
  • This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • A. O'Brien has won 19.0% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite with two wins in his last three races and a 67% win rate, backed by the O'Brien-Moore combination that boasts a proven record together. The catch: he's never raced on very wet and muddy ground, and both recent wins came at the Curragh—softer ground than what awaits at Doncaster today means this is genuinely untested territory.
Never raced on very wet and muddy ground Lightly raced (3 career races) Market favourite (6/4)
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.

How odds work
Won 1 of last 5
Why this score
  • This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • K. R. Burke has won 12.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • There is £155,952 in prize money. A small prize can mean weaker rivals, but it may also mean the horse is running below its best level.
TrackLab Insight
Genuinely impressive record: two wins from three races and a place every time out, with a 67% win rate that stands out at this age. However, he's also never raced on very wet and muddy ground, and the recent second at Newmarket (just 28 days back) suggests he's still learning—this mud test at Doncaster will be a significant step up in difficulty.
Never raced on very wet and muddy ground Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing blinkers Back after 88 days off Won 3 of last 5
Why this score
  • This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • A 23.1% win rate at this course for C. Appleby. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • A 23.1% record at this course for C. Appleby. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated horse in the field by a clear margin with the best win rate here at 60%, but he's never tackled very wet and muddy ground—a real unknown at Doncaster today. Three straight top-3 finishes and two wins at Newmarket show a sharp young operator, though the 88-day gap since his last run and unknown mud credentials are worth factoring in.
Top rated by 3lbs Never raced on very wet and muddy ground 3 straight top-3 finishes Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.

How odds work
Won 2 of last 5
Why this score
  • A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • A 19.0% overall win rate for A. O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • A 13.9% record at this course for A. O'Brien. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-3 finishes with a recent second at Newmarket beaten just 0.3 lengths shows he's competitive at the highest level, but a 40% win rate across five races suggests he's more of a solid finisher than a natural winner. The persistent unknown of very wet and muddy ground, combined with a tendency to finish second rather than first in recent outings, limits the ceiling here.
Never raced on very wet and muddy ground 3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.

How odds work
First run (debut)
Why this score
  • 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • A 14.4% overall win rate for A. Balding. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • A 15.9% record at this course for O. Murphy. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.
TrackLab Insight
Won on debut at Salisbury this week with a 100% record, but that's from just one race—literally nothing else to go on at this stage. Jumping straight into a Group 1 on very wet and muddy ground at Doncaster is a huge step up in class and conditions from a debut winner; the Balding yard has the experience to handle the situation, but raw data on this horse is extremely thin.
Racecourse debut
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.

How odds work
Won 1 of last 5
Why this score
  • This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • An official rating of 103 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
  • W. Muir & Chris Grassick wins only 3.7% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Lightly raced with just three career outings, but has finished in the frame in every single one—a track record most horses never achieve. The worry is soft ground and Doncaster are new territory; he hasn't run on very wet and muddy going, and his recent form shows two thirds here and at Sandown, suggesting he may not have needed the best of conditions to stay competitive.
Never raced on very wet and muddy ground Lightly raced (3 career races) 3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.

How odds work
Won 2 of last 5
Why this score
  • 7 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • A 19.0% overall win rate for A. O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Two wins from four races and a 50% win rate, but the form has deteriorated sharply: a sixth-place finish beaten over 10 lengths at the Curragh 41 days ago is a major red flag. He's also never run on very wet and muddy ground, and the gap between his best efforts (both at the Curragh) and that recent heavy defeat raises serious questions about consistency here.
Never raced on very wet and muddy ground
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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