Curragh
·
Staffordstown Stud Stakes (Group 3)
Starts in
17h 57min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 6/4
£1 wins £1.50 · 37 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. M. Lyons wins 13.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 12.8% win rate at this course for C. Keane. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- Today's race is over 1m. The distance may not be ideal. If it does not suit, the horse has to fight the race.
TrackLab Insight
Maire Rua is the highest-rated runner by 8lbs and wins roughly 2 in 3 races, with two victories from three outings including a dominant display at Leopardstown 38 days ago. The significant weakness is she's never raced on wet ground—a major unknown for a horse who looks to rely on natural ability.
Top rated by 8lbs
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
3 straight top-3 finishes
£1 wins £4 · 21 Strong chance
Finishing 1st last time is encouraging
21
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finishing 1st last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- An 8.8% win rate at this course for W. J. Lee. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
The Good Wife won on debut at Punchestown 35 days ago, giving her a perfect record in one race from a well-organised stable. The problem is a single win tells you almost nothing about a horse's true ability, she's never raced on wet ground, and this is a significant step up in class from her opening effort.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Moore has a good 30.8% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- A 19.0% overall win rate for A. O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Golden Ring is the highest-rated horse in the field and won at Dundalk 18 days ago, but he's never raced on wet ground and finished 7th at Newmarket just 11 days ago on good ground—a poor effort that suggests form is fragile. His record on good ground shows zero wins in 3 attempts.
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8.2% overall win rate for G. Ryan. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- G. Ryan wins only 5.1% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Isle Of Capri has won roughly 1 in 3 races and landed a win at Gowran Park just 31 days ago with top-3 finishes in her other two outings. However, she's never raced on wet ground and the race comes at the tail end of a busy campaign, so the unknown conditions and fatigue are risks.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. M. Sheridan wins 7.8% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- A 14.1% overall win rate for J. Patrick O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- J. M. Sheridan wins only 7.0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Magna Victoria made a winning debut at Listowel this week, a perfect start under the Joseph Patrick O'Brien stable that many trainers would envy. The problem is there's only one race to judge her by, so this is a huge step up in class and the wet ground is completely untested territory for her.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 12.4% win rate at this course for D. Browne McMonagle. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- J. Patrick O'Brien wins 14.1% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Today's race is over 1m. The distance may not be ideal. If it does not suit, the horse has to fight the race.
TrackLab Insight
Bellesque shows genuine ability with a 33% win rate over distances of 1m1f to 1m2f, but this is a step down to a straight mile where she hasn't won. She's never raced on wet ground and comes in after 74 days on the sidelines—a long absence for a 2-year-old.
Never raced on wet ground
£1 wins £20 · 5 Long shot
Mrs J. Harrington wins 10.7% of all their races
5
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Mrs J. Harrington wins 10.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- S. Foley wins 9.0% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- 1m may not be the right distance. Distance is one of the basics, and this one is a worry.
TrackLab Insight
Chattering Classes is lightly raced with just two outings and no wins yet, though she showed promise with a third-place finish at Thurles only 12 days ago. She's never encountered wet ground and raced just yesterday, so the quick turnaround and unfamiliar conditions make this a tall ask.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. S. Bolger wins 12.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- With an 8.0% win rate overall, L. McAteer is one of the more dependable riders.
- 1m may not be the right distance. Distance is one of the basics, and this one is a worry.
TrackLab Insight
Admired Beauty has won 1 in 5 races and arrives here off the back of three straight top-3 finishes, including a win at Naas just 10 days ago. The concern is she's never raced on wet ground and runs again after only 3 days—an aggressive schedule for a 2-year-old still learning her trade.
Never raced on wet ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Runs again after just 3 days
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Mrs J. Harrington has won 10.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 38 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
Apollo's Comet won 1 of 4 races early in her career but hasn't raced in 51 days and comes into this having finished 6th and 7th in her last two outings. She's never raced on wet ground either, so the conditions here are unknown territory.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With an 8.6% win rate overall, S. Heffernan is one of the more dependable riders.
- A 14.1% overall win rate for J. Patrick O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- 1m may not be the right distance. Distance is one of the basics, and this one is a worry.
TrackLab Insight
Blonde Over Blue won one of four races but has zero wins from three starts on good ground—a real concern on any fast surface. She's never raced on wet ground and hasn't returned to the winner's enclosure since her breakthrough back in June, despite 59 days to find form.
Never raced on wet ground
£1 wins £28 · 1 Long shot
G. F. Carroll has won 8.2% of their races in their career
1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. F. Carroll has won 8.2% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Today's ground is Soft, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- A 6.2% record at this course for J. G Murphy. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Cross Of Stars has raced just once—a sixth-place finish at her debut 35 days ago—so there's almost no evidence of what she can do at this level. She's never raced on wet ground and comes from a trainer who has form, but a single run tells us very little.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)