Curragh
·
Every Race, Every Moment 1xBet.ie Amateur Riders Derby (Q.R.) Race
Starts in
18h 32min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
18+ | Gamble responsibly: BeGambleAware.org Ad: we earn commission if you join a bookmaker via our links.
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 2/1
£1 wins £2 · 28 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Results are getting better with each run. A horse on the way up has a good chance of a win soon.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Absurde is top-rated by 11 pounds (OR 106) and the market favourite at 2/1, with genuine Class 1 victories at Cheltenham and Chester behind him, but his form has collapsed catastrophically—a 25th-place finish beaten 65 lengths here just 23 days ago is the clearest warning sign in the race. He has won 5 of 19 races (26%) and thrives on good ground with 3 wins from 7 starts, yet today's wet conditions are not his target surface and his recent defeat was so severe it raises serious questions about his current well-being. The favourite is a horse in sharp form decline.
Top rated by 11lbs
Market favourite (2/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Mr D. Dunsdon has a good 100% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- 23 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
Sirius is the only course winner in the field, with 1 victory from 4 Curragh runs, and has already won over this exact distance at this track 364 days ago—a major advantage in familiarity. Just 23 days back from a narrow 2nd (beaten 0.5L) here, he shows the best career win rate in the field at 1 in 3.5 races (29% from 7 starts) and is the jockey-trainer pairing's 2nd win in 2 races together. However, his 11th-place finish at Galway 85 days ago shows he is inconsistent and this will be his first wet-ground test.
Only course winner (1 from 4 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- The trend in recent results is up. Each run has been better than the one before, which is encouraging.
- Finished 14th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
TrackLab Insight
Shosholoza carries the second-highest rating in the field (OR 95, +8 vs field average) but has delivered very little to justify that mark, winning just once in 5 races over a year ago and finishing 14th here just 23 days ago. He has never finished in the top 3 in his last 4 runs and shows no evidence of wet-ground ability or form that would suggest a turnaround today. At 3 years old with limited experience, he is the second-least reliable runner in the field despite his rating.
2nd highest rated (OR 95)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Mr J. L. Gleeson has a good 33.3% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- J. Patrick O'Brien has won 14.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Contorsion is lightly raced with just 1 career start (a 5th-place finish 168 days ago at Gowran Park) and has never encountered wet ground or this distance—making her effectively a newcomer to these conditions at 4 years old. She has drawn high (10) at a course where high-draw bias is weakest, and with zero wins from minimal racing, she represents the least-tested runner in the field by a significant margin. Her trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid win rate (14 wins from 43 races) but there is almost no form data to work with here.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- D. K. Weld has won 15.6% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 28 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
Bay of Stars is a 3-year-old with just 6 races under his belt, showing promise rather than proof with 1 win and 4 top-3 finishes, though his recent form includes 3rd top-3 finishes at Listowel (28 days ago) and Down Royal (122 days ago). He has drawn low (1) which carries a statistical edge at Curragh, but there is no data on how he handles wet ground and he comes back after 28 days without a win in that spell. His 17% win rate marks him as a developing prospect, not yet a proven performer at this level.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- G. O'Leary has a good 3.4% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A 3.4% record at this course for G. O'Leary. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Mister Adam has raced just 5 times in his career with 1 win and 2 top-3 finishes (20% win rate), but returns from a 248-day absence with a worrying 8th-place finish at Gowran Park yesterday—suggesting either a race too soon or a horse struggling to find form. He is relatively inexperienced and his last meaningful outing was 453 days ago, making this a gamble on recovery rather than a horse in working order. Data on wet ground or this distance is unavailable.
Relatively inexperienced (5 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced here 3 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- 1 win at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- C. Murphy has a 5.5% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Puppet Master shows the steadier form profile in this race—3 wins and 6 top-3 finishes from 14 races (21% win rate)—with a Class 1 victory at Lingfield Park on 10 May 2025 and a recent 1st at Kilbeggan 60 days ago followed by 2nd and 3rd finishes. He was fresh 35 days ago but has no wet-ground record in the available data and struggles on galloping right-handed tracks (0 wins from 6 starts), which may limit his options if Curragh rides that way today. This is a horse with genuine recent form, though wet ground remains an unknown.
One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
2
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 33% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- G. Elliott has a 6.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The Mediator is the only runner in this field who has actually won on wet ground—2 wins from 6 starts (33%)—which is his clearest edge in conditions that will suit few others today. At 34 races, he is vastly more experienced than the field average of 13 runs, though his 9% career win rate and 10th-place finish just 6 days ago suggest his form is fragile. Back here after 16 days with a narrow 4th, he stays busy but has never won at Curragh in 6 attempts.
Best record on this ground (2 from 6)
Most experienced (34 runs, field avg 13)
Runs again after just 6 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 9 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- 5 runs here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- H. Rogers has a 3.5% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Narlita thrives on heavy ground, with 2 wins from 7 starts (29%) on the wettest surfaces—a genuine asset in today's conditions and the second-best wet-ground record in the field after The Mediator. She has never won at this course in 5 attempts and has won just twice in 34 races overall, a 6% rate that reflects a horse needing very precise conditions to deliver. Recent form shows a 3rd at Bellewstown 19 days ago, but she has struggled on anything firmer than heavy in her career.
Best record at this trip (2 from 13)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Rated 18.2 points above the average for this race. A horse rated above its rivals has an edge.
- Miss G. Benson has a good 40% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- P. John Flood has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Hunters Run has not raced for 505 days (over 16 months)—the longest absence in the field—making him a complete unknown in terms of current fitness and mental state after such a long break. His last three runs were on British all-weather surfaces and he has never raced on wet ground, so today represents a double test of the unknown. He won 2 of 8 races (25%) before his departure but that form is now hopelessly stale and his return should be treated with extreme caution.
Never raced on wet ground
Absent 710 days (longest in field)