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Aintree

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Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
22h 37min
Jumps race · big fences · weighted to be fair Underrated horse: Kadastral About 2 miles Slightly soft ground Mid-level race 8 runners £11,882 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd or 3rd, at 1/5 odds
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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1 Taurus Bay
B. Jones · B. Pauling · 5yo · 11st 10lb · Official rating 135
£1 wins £3.33 · 21 Strong chance
B. Pauling wins 15.2% of all their races
Freshness Form
21
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 10/3
£1 wins £3.33 · 21 Strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.

How odds work
✓ Trainer overall starts ✓ Jockey overall win rate ✓ Form trend
Back after 228 days off Won 2 of last 5 Won here 1 time Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • B. Pauling wins 15.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • A 15.8% overall win rate for B. Jones. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
  • The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 225 days off Won 2 of last 5 Likes this ground (wins 33% of runs) Won at this distance 2 times
Why this score
  • This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • A 20.3% overall win rate for H. Skelton. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
  • The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.

How odds work
Won 2 of last 5 Likes this ground (wins 67% of runs) Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • S. Twiston-Davies has won 15.8% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
  • Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 246 days off Won 2 of last 5 Likes this ground (wins 25% of runs) Won at this distance 2 times
Why this score
  • 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
  • A 0% record at this course for H. Derham. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Back after 169 days off Won 2 of last 5 Won at this distance 3 times
Why this score
  • Has raced 4 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
  • A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
  • 169 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 180 days off Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before Has won on this ground Won at this distance 2 times
Why this score
  • Handles this ground well, with 20% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
  • J. O'Neill Jr. wins 15.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
  • The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before Likes this ground (wins 33% of runs)
Why this score
  • A 33.3% win rate at this course for R. Llewellyn. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • With an average finish of 3.3 lately, recent results are poor. This horse needs to improve.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 214 days off Won 2 of last 5 Likes this ground (wins 40% of runs)
Why this score
  • J. O'Keeffe has won 9.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • 214 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
  • A 5.3% record at this course for J. O'Keeffe. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
More at Aintree tomorrow ?