Wolverhampton

The longest absence in the field — 172 days off the track — and its last race ended in an 11th-place finish, beaten over 20 lengths. Horses returning from that kind of break after a poor run need a clear reason for optimism, and the data here doesn't provide one. Only one career win from eight races, and the lengthy layoff makes this genuinely hard to assess.

The standout course credential here — three wins from 15 races at Wolverhampton is the best course record in the field, and it has placed twice in its last three completed runs. The most recent result at this track is listed as unknown, which is a frustrating gap in the picture, but the overall Wolverhampton record demands respect. If you're looking for a horse that genuinely thrives at this venue rather than just runs here, this is it.

The lowest-rated horse in the field, carrying the lightest weight and rated 9lbs below the field average — that weight allowance is its main claim, but the gulf in class it represents is significant. Three wins from 55 races over an eight-year career is a modest return, and recent Lingfield form of 6-5-2 shows it finding the frame occasionally but not threatening to win. Hard to make a case for it against better-rated rivals.

The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 56 races against a field average of 29 — and at nine years old, Blackjack has seen everything this level of racing can throw at it. Our figures rate it joint-highest in the race, edging our selection by a single point, but its recent form of 6-5-7 shows it finishing just outside the places without threatening to win. A horse that places regularly but has never won on ground conditions like today's is a tricky proposition.

One win from 20 races — the lowest win rate among the principal contenders — and the only win in its career came on good ground, a surface it's unlikely to encounter here. The official rating of 52 is 4lbs below the field average, meaning it has less to offer on paper than most of its rivals. At 41.0 in the market, there's no obvious angle to recommend.

Two course wins here make Em Jay Kay one of only a handful of proven Wolverhampton winners in this field — that's a genuine plus. The problem is the recent form: beaten nearly 12 lengths last time out here, and that came after an 8-length defeat at the same track earlier in the year. At 41.0 in the market, the punters are saying what the form already suggests — it needs to rediscover something it hasn't shown lately.