On Key

The sweet spot appears to be races between seven furlongs and a mile. At that distance, the horse has 1 win from 10 races — a 10 percent win rate over its preferred trip, which is twice its overall average. This is where On Key is most dangerous, and a trainer or jockey spotting a suitable race at that distance would have good reason to be interested. Trainer Scott Dixon, based at Rolleston in Nottinghamshire, is having a solid season with 33 winners from the yard so far, and he has clearly kept faith in On Key despite the long drought.

The partnership with regular rider Ryan Sexton has not yielded a win yet — the pair have raced together seven times without success — so a change in the saddle might offer a fresh angle. On Key races most often in Class 5 company, where it has yet to break through in eight attempts, suggesting that while it struggles at the lower levels, it may be better suited to slightly less competitive fields. With the horse still active and recently in the winners' enclosure, another win is not beyond the realm of possibility, though it will need everything to fall into place.