The race favourite and backed by the editorial verdict, Kalokalo was beaten by just a nose in a stronger race at Newbury only 17 days ago — the form couldn't be more relevant. He wins roughly 1 in 3 races at this sort of distance, and his overall record of finishing in the top three across nearly three-quarters of his career races makes him comfortably the most consistent horse in the field. The one flag is that he has never won on dry ground, but his near-miss at Newbury came in similar conditions.
The most experienced horse in this field with 10 races under her belt, Mohaab finally broke her duck at Nottingham just 13 days ago — the freshest winner here. She races from a favourable low draw, and low draws at Windsor over this distance win roughly 1 in 7 races, nearly twice as often as high draws. The big concern is her odds drifting dramatically from what looked like a strong opening price, which suggests those closest to the horse aren't as confident as they might be.
The longest absentee in the field by some distance — this horse hasn't raced for six months, and his three previous runs all resulted in finishes outside the top five. He's also never raced on dry ground and carries a rating that puts him near the bottom of the field. Coming back from a long break with no form to speak of makes him one of the hardest horses here to get excited about.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (3 career races)Absent 180 days (longest in field)
He's wearing a visor today and, crucially, has a solid record at this sort of distance — winning roughly 1 in 4 races when racing between a mile and a quarter and a mile and two furlongs. The catch is he has never raced on dry ground before, so today's fast conditions are uncharted territory. If the headgear sharpens him up and the ground doesn't trouble him, he's more interesting than his odds might suggest.
She won at Yarmouth just over seven weeks ago and has form at this sort of distance, winning roughly 1 in 4 races between a mile and a quarter and a mile and two furlongs. The problem is she's never won on dry ground in five attempts, and today's conditions are dry — that's a meaningful gap in her record. The cheekpieces and tongue strap suggest the trainer is trying something different to find more, but the ground question remains unanswered.
The lowest-rated horse in the field by six pounds and carrying the lightest weight — usually a sign of the handicapper placing her well below her rivals on merit. A 20th-place finish at Newbury features among her recent runs, and she's never raced on dry ground. She carries the least weight, but there's nothing in her form to suggest she can make that advantage count.
Lowest rated, 6lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in fieldNever raced on dry ground
Thimble steps up two class levels today having never won or placed in three career races, and she's never raced on dry ground either. It's also the first time her jockey and trainer have teamed up, so there's very little here to work with in terms of patterns or confidence. Too many unknowns for a horse yet to give any clear signs of ability.
Steps up 2 classesNever raced on dry groundLightly raced (3 career races)
Technically the best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in 6 races — but her last win was nearly 10 months ago and she's drawn in stall 11, one of the worst positions at Windsor over this trip. She's also shown her best form over shorter distances than today's mile and two furlongs, and has never won on dry ground. The market has her at 23-1 and it's not hard to see why.
Four races, no wins, no places, and a finishing sequence that has only gone from bad to slightly less bad — from ninth down to fifth. He's wearing a visor for the first time today, which can sometimes spark improvement, but he's also never raced on dry ground before. There's a lot needing to go right for a horse who hasn't yet shown he belongs in this company.
Zero wins from five races and the market has pushed him out to 21-1, which tells its own story. He's never raced on dry ground before and steps up two class levels today — both are significant unknowns he hasn't had to deal with yet. Until he proves he can handle those questions, it's hard to make a case for him.
Steps up 2 classesNever raced on dry groundUnfancied in the market despite a high rating
Finished 10th last time out and is rated 3lbs below the field average — the second-lowest rating in the race. She's never raced on dry ground and the jockey-trainer partnership is a first-time combination, so there's no track record to lean on there. At 41-1, the market is saying everything that needs to be said.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.