Warwick

Arguably the most consistent horse in the field right now — finishing second, third, and second in its last three races — but it has never won on normal ground conditions in four attempts, which is exactly what it faces today. It also has a blank record on left-handed galloping tracks like Warwick across nine races, a pattern that is hard to ignore. An apprentice jockey claiming 3lbs takes some of the weight burden off, but the course and ground profile is a concern.

Five career wins from 40 races sounds solid until you look at where those wins came — four of them were at Hereford, where this horse wins 1 in every 2 races it enters. The problem is that Warwick is a very different track, and this horse has never won on a left-handed galloping course like this one in nine attempts. Recent form has been modest, beaten 18 lengths or more in its last two runs.

Thirty races and still no wins — Bahtiyar is the lowest-rated horse in the field by some margin, sitting 16lbs below the field average on official ratings. It carries the lightest weight as a result, but has never won at Warwick in five previous visits, making this track another obstacle in a long list of near-misses. Consistent enough to fill a place, but finding the winner's enclosure has proved elusive across a lengthy career.

Top-rated in this field by 3lbs, yet the market has completely turned against this horse — odds drifted from near-certainty to a 10-1 outsider, which tells its own story. Four races in with zero wins and some heavy defeats in Ireland, it has also never raced on normal ground conditions like today. The 119-day absence and a brand new jockey-trainer partnership make this a horse full of unknowns.