Warwick

The best overall win rate in the field, winning roughly 1 in 4 races, and it arrives here with back-to-back wins followed by a narrow second — form that is hard to argue with. It carries the lowest weight in the field and has the strongest record of any runner on today's normal ground conditions, with 2 wins from 5 races on similar surfaces. Still only four years old and improving, this horse looks overpriced at 3.95 given how well it has been performing.

The only horse in this field who has already won over this course and distance — it did exactly that at Warwick just six weeks ago, making it uniquely qualified for today's test. Rated 7lbs below the field average, which means it carries the least weight of the fancied runners, giving it a physical advantage that could matter late on. One win from 12 races looks modest, but that win came right here, and that local knowledge is worth a lot in a small field.

The top-rated horse in this field by 5lbs, which on paper makes it the one to beat — yet the market has drifted it out to a big price, suggesting punters aren't convinced. That last run at Wincanton was poor, beaten nearly 24 lengths, and this horse hasn't raced at Warwick before. Hard to ignore the rating advantage, but the combination of a weak recent run and an odds drift is a real warning sign.

The most experienced horse in the field with 16 races under its belt, and it knows how to win over distances like this — winning roughly 1 in 4 races at 2 miles or more. However, its last run at Fakenham was dreadful, finishing 9th and beaten 48 lengths, which is hard to look past. The most battle-hardened runner here, but form is patchy and the market isn't interested.