Uttoxeter
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Follow @chloemediumship On Social Media Handicap Steeple Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
£1 wins £1.50 · 44 Very strong chance
D. Skelton wins 22.8% of their races at this course
44
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 6/4
£1 wins £1.50 · 44 Very strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Skelton wins 22.8% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- D. Skelton wins 18.5% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- 17 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 2.82 is the youngest runner (four years old) and has put together a sharp recent sequence: two wins and a desperately-close second (beaten just 0.1 lengths) at Uttoxeter 17 days ago over this exact course and distance. That near-miss form is the strongest recent evidence in the race, but his career win rate of 14% means he's got plenty still to prove at this level.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (2.82)
12
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An official rating of 107 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- This is a 9-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- T. Bulgin wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Just broke her duck with a win at Worcester three weeks ago and is second-favourite in the market at 7.0, but she's one of the youngest in the field (five years old) and has won only twice in 11 races with a patchy recent record. Her jockey and trainer have never won together in ten attempts, which is a small but telling detail against stronger partnerships in the field.
2nd in the market (7.0)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- Has won 1 time at this course from 2 runs. A horse that has won here before may like the course.
- Just 23 runs in its career so far. With little experience, this horse is harder to judge.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner in the field — he's won one from two starts at Uttoxeter and has already tasted victory over this course and distance, which is tangible evidence. However, he's been a long way below par recently (pulled up 242 days ago in a similar race at Ludlow) and hasn't looked sharp since, so the course form is old news that doesn't necessarily reflect current ability.
Only course winner (1 from 2 here)
Has won over this course and distance
£1 wins £14 · 9 Could surprise
S. Bowen wins 20.6% of their races at this course
9
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Bowen wins 20.6% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- O. Murphy wins 18.8% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- O. Murphy has not had many runners lately, so their recent form is unclear.
TrackLab Insight
Second-highest rated in the field but has drifted just like the selection, and recent form at Newton Abbot (2nd, beaten 7 lengths) two weeks ago is the best hard evidence here. He's one of the few with multiple long-distance wins and genuinely likes this trip, but his complete inability to win on anything faster than good ground is a serious problem in a normal ground race.
2nd highest rated (OR 120)
£1 wins £10 · 8 Could surprise
Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- Has had 17 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse in the field (9 races) and the only one without a win, though he's threatening to break through with seven placed finishes from nine starts. He ran third at Uttoxeter just 17 days ago over this exact course and distance, which is the most recent relevant form in the race, but his zero wins remain a glaring weakness against rivals with proven course experience.
Relatively inexperienced (9 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- Starting from a good position. On some tracks, starting on one side can save ground.
- S. England has a 7.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field (32 races) at the lowest weight, and he's in form with three straight top-three finishes including a win at Hexham. However, his 9% career win rate is the weakest in the field, he's never won on soft ground, and crucially, he's got zero wins from 12 attempts on left-handed galloping tracks — Uttoxeter is exactly that, making him fundamentally unsuited to today's challenge.
Lowest rated, 10lbs below average
Most experienced (32 runs, field avg 19)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- B. Jones has won 15.8% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- B. Jones has won 15.8% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Up against stronger rivals than before. Moving up to a harder race tests whether a horse is improving.
TrackLab Insight
A course specialist with a 60% win rate at Worcester (3 from 5) and a lofty 36% career win rate overall, but he's at the wrong racecourse: he ran 7th here at Uttoxeter just 17 days ago and has shown zero wins on good-to-soft ground in three tries. His Worcester mastery is irrelevant when he's shipped 100 miles away from his happy hunting ground.
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- T. Ellis has a good 21.1% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- With an average finish of 3 lately, recent results are poor. This horse needs to improve.
TrackLab Insight
This mare has the standout statistic of the race: a 38% career win rate (6 from 16) that no other runner comes close to matching. She's also the only horse with a strong record on normal ground specifically (5 from 11), but a 38-day break and a heavy 5th at Stratford last time suggest she's coming back from a rough patch, making her inconsistent for betting purposes right now.
Best record on this ground (5 from 11)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
1
Duke Of Luckley
£1 wins £28 · 2 Long shot
Wins 29% of the time on this type of ground
2
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 29% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- An 11.2% overall win rate for M. Keighley. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- 4 wins at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
TrackLab Insight
The selection despite drifting dramatically in the market from 1.1 to 21.0, and he has legitimate credentials: he wins roughly 1 in 4 races and owns a 40% win rate over this exact distance (2m). However, his Southwell dominance doesn't travel — he's just 3rd at Newton Abbot last time and has never won on soft ground in five attempts, which is a real ceiling on his form right now.
Best record at this trip (4 from 10)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating