Ice Jet

Both of those wins have come over longer distances — two miles or more — and that is where the numbers really start to make sense. In seven races at that kind of trip, Ice Jet has won two of them, which works out at 29%, or roughly 1 in every 3.5 races. That is a genuinely strong conversion rate, and it suggests the extra distance suits this horse in a way that shorter trips simply do not. When a young horse finds a clear preference like that so early in its career, it is worth paying attention.

The trainer behind all of this is Dan Skelton, based at Alcester in Warwickshire, and the sheer scale of his operation gives you a sense of what Ice Jet is part of. Skelton's yard has sent out 198 winners already this season — that is not a stable producing the occasional nice horse, that is a production line of winners. For a four-year-old to be picking up wins in that environment, it has to be doing something right.

One small puzzle remains. Ice Jet has raced three times at Class 4 level — one rung up from the bottom of the ladder in British racing — and has yet to win at that level, drawing a blank in all three attempts. Both career wins have come in lower-grade company. That is worth keeping in mind, because it suggests the horse has not yet proved it can win when the competition stiffens, even slightly. Having raced just one day ago, it is very much in the thick of an active campaign right now, and with two wins in the last month alone — Huntingdon in May, Worcester three days later — Ice Jet looks like a horse that has just figured something out. The next few races will be very telling.