Thirsk

Despite being sent off at just 5.0, Night Emperor has never won or placed in nine career races — a record that makes the market confidence hard to fully understand. Two fourth-place finishes in the last 15 days, including one right here at Thirsk, show it is running consistently without threatening to win. It is rated a pound below the field average, so it needs to punch slightly above its weight to feature.

The top-rated horse in this field by four pounds and the market favourite, Captain Cess arrives on the back of two near-misses — second by a whisker at Chepstow, then third at Wetherby. The puzzle is that in ten career races, this horse has never actually won one, despite finishing in the top three five times. That record demands respect but also raises a question: when does close finally become first?

The only horse in this field who has won at Thirsk before, and the only one with a genuinely strong record over this seven-furlong trip — two wins from eleven races at the distance. With three career wins overall, Emerald Army has the best win rate in the field, winning roughly one in every ten races. Recent form is patchy though, with two poor runs since a second place at Carlisle six weeks ago.

Misemerald is the lowest-rated horse in the field alongside Breeze Star, carrying six pounds less than the field average — a significant deficit in a race this tight. That said, form figures of third and second in the last two outings represent a genuine upturn in form, and wearing cheekpieces (a hood that helps a horse focus) suggests the trainer is trying to get the best out of it right now. The ratings gap makes winning a tall order, but the current run of form is the best it has shown all season.