The market favourite despite finishing seventh last time out — punters are backing him on the strength of a win at Ludlow before that, and his record on normal ground reads one win from five races, which is better than most here. He wears blinkers and wins roughly 1 in 5 races on dry ground, but he has never won on this type of left-handed track across five attempts, which is a real concern.
Second in the market, and crucially the only horse in this field who has already raced at Stratford — he finished third here just 13 days ago, beaten just over 2 lengths, which makes him the course specialist of the group. He pulled up the run before that, so there are questions about consistency, but returning quickly to a track where he ran well is a genuine positive.
The top-rated horse in this field by 6lbs, and the one in the hottest recent form — two wins in eight days at Worcester and Uttoxeter put her head and shoulders above most of these on paper. The catch is she has never raced on dry ground before, so today's conditions are an unknown. She has drifted dramatically in the market despite that strong form, which is worth noting.
Top rated by 6lbsNever raced on dry groundBest career win rate in field (1 in 6)
The most lightly raced horse in the field with only four outings, and she showed something new last time out — a close second, beaten just over 2 lengths at Newton Abbot. That is easily her best effort, and she arrives here in improving form. Like several rivals, she has never raced on dry ground, so that remains an open question.
Ten races in with zero wins but three placed finishes, so she keeps competing without quite getting over the line. She finished third at Uttoxeter 29 days ago, which is solid enough, but she has never raced on dry ground and this jockey-trainer pairing has only worked together once before. Plenty of unknowns here.
Wearing tongue strapFresh (671 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
This horse has not raced for nearly two years — 671 days off the track is by far the longest absence in the field, and that alone makes him a huge risk. He has zero wins from eight career races, and no horse here has been away longer or has more questions to answer about their current fitness. The long odds reflect that uncertainty.
Never raced on dry groundAbsent 671 days (longest in field)
The lowest-rated horse in the field by a wide margin — rated 15lbs below the average here — and she has zero wins or places from 13 career races. She has raced at Stratford twice recently and finished 12th and 8th, and this jockey-trainer pairing has never won together from eight attempts. The data points in one direction.
Lowest rated, 15lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in fieldNever raced on dry ground
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.