Ripon

The only horse in this field with a win at today's distance of one mile, and the best career win rate here at roughly 1 in 4 races — that stands out in a field where most rivals are still searching for their first win. Three wins and seven places from 13 races gives it a depth of form none of the others can match, and while the fifth at Kempton two weeks ago was modest, the run before that was a close second. Cheekpieces are on, and this is a horse that consistently finds itself involved.

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 18 races compared to a field average of 8 — and has shown a win rate of around 1 in 5 at today's distance, which compares well to most rivals here. The second place at Southwell last month keeps the form live, and Daniel Tudhope is a strong booking. Finishing in the top three 10 times from 18 races suggests this horse is reliably competitive, even if converting those placed efforts into wins has proved difficult.

The editorial's second pick, and the form book gives you a clear reason why — this horse won at Haydock just 12 days ago and arrives in the best recent form of any runner here. With 2 wins from 14 races and a solid record at this distance on normal conditions, the step up two classes is the main question, but cheekpieces are fitted and the horse has been running well at this trip. The most straightforward case in the field.

Only three races under its belt, which makes this one of the least-exposed horses in the field — that cuts both ways, as there's genuine uncertainty about how good it might be. The runner-up at Beverley three weeks ago was the first sign of real ability, but the seventh and tenth before that were well beaten. Slightly wet ground is new territory, so you're taking it on trust that the improvement continues.