Lingfield

The most experienced runner in the field by a wide margin with 53 races to his name, Douglas DC has only won once in all that time — a single victory now more than four years ago. His last six runs have brought no wins and his record on normal ground shows zero victories from five attempts, which doesn't inspire confidence here.

The longest absentee in the field by some distance, Brave Guest hasn't raced in 167 days and has never won from 10 attempts. Stepping up two classes on return from a lengthy break makes this a very tough ask, and his record offers little reason for optimism.

Among the least experienced runners here with just five races to her name, Lilykoy has yet to finish in the top three in any of them. There is a slight improvement trend in recent outings, but this is still a horse that has plenty to prove against more seasoned rivals.

Rated just behind the top two on our figures and sitting mid-range in the market at 9-1, Smoker Bellamy is identified as one of the chief dangers to the favourite. He's yet to win from eight races, but a second-place finish in his recent form shows the ability is there, and he's one of the better-rated three-year-olds in this field.

One of the more experienced runners here with 39 races under his belt, but Alex The Great hasn't won in over 16 months, and his last three runs produced finishes of 5th, 6th, and 7th. It's hard to make a case for him at 23-1 when the form shows no signs of a revival.

Hawaiian King runs here just five days after finishing eighth at Kempton, the second quickest turnaround in the field behind the favourite. He has no wins from 12 races, his recent form reads 8-6-7, and at 34-1 the data gives no real reason to disagree with the market.

Pablo Prince has won three times at Lingfield from 24 races here, making him one of the genuine course specialists in this field — a stat worth taking seriously. His last run was a poor one, beaten 31 lengths at Epsom, but he was much more competitive here at Lingfield just 25 days ago when finishing fourth, suggesting a return to his favourite track could suit.

Blue Birdie carries the lowest weight in the field, which gives her a physical advantage on paper, but she has never raced on normal ground before and her form reads as four consecutive finishes deep in the pack. At 151-1, she is the longest price in the race, and the data gives no clear reason to argue against that assessment.

Joint lowest-rated horse in the field alongside Blue Birdie, sitting 5lbs below the field average, and his four races have produced finishes of 8th, 11th, 11th, and 10th. He has also never raced on normal ground before, so this is a step into the unknown on multiple fronts.