Smoker Bellamy

The recent form makes for interesting reading, though not always comfortable. Working backwards through the last six races — 4, 6, 7, 11, 2, 4 — there is a second place in there that stands out like a ray of sunshine on an otherwise overcast afternoon. That runner-up finish suggests the ability is somewhere in the tank; the trick is finding out how to unlock it consistently. The finishing positions either side of it, however, show a horse that can drift well out of contention, and an 11th place is the kind of result that prompts a rethink in any yard.

What works in Smoker Bellamy's favour is the team behind it. Trained by Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole at their Elmbridge base in Worcestershire, this is a yard that clearly knows how to win — 49 winners already this season is a genuinely impressive number, and suggests that when a horse from this stable finds its feet, there is every chance the team will have it in the right place at the right time. The fact that Smoker Bellamy raced just one day ago shows this is very much an active campaign, with the yard clearly still believing there is something worth pursuing.

At three years old, there is time. Some horses simply take longer to work things out, and a yard with 49 winners on the board this season is not short of confidence or know-how. Whether Smoker Bellamy can turn that promising second place into an actual win remains the question — but the pieces are at least in place for it to happen.