Leopardstown
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Bahrain Turf Club Knockaire Stakes (Listed)
Starts in
4h 8min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40%+ Very strong chance
20–39% Strong chance
12–19% Solid chance
6–11% Could surprise
Under 6% Long shot
How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance, as a percentage. The scores in a race add up to 100%.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in a place. It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 5/4
£1 wins £1.25 · 42% chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.25 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- C. Keane has a good 13.8% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- With £30,000 in prize money, this is a lower-level race. That sometimes means the horse has struggled in better races.
TrackLab Insight
Running again just 7 days after finishing 2nd by a nose at Naas, showing genuine appetite for racing and boasting a 60% win rate with jockey Colin Keane over 5 rides together. Career win rate of roughly 1 in 3 races (3 from 9) shows consistency, but the quick turnaround leaves minimal recovery time and her last outing was a mixed signal — an ultra-close 2nd followed by a well-beaten 8th at Gowran Park. The filly is at 2/1 but the short rest is a notable concern.
Runs again after just 7 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.88 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8.4% win rate at this course for W. J. Lee. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- A 24.4% win rate at this course for P. Twomey. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- There is little recent data for P. Twomey's stable. It is hard to judge their current form.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated horse in the field by 7lbs with a standout win rate of roughly 1 in 3 races across his 13-race career. Won his last outing at Curragh just 14 days ago and boasts a 40% win rate with jockey W. J. Lee, making this the most proven partnership in the race. The market favourite at 11/8 but has drifted significantly from 1/12, suggesting some uncertainty despite the strong form.
Top rated by 7lbs
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Market favourite (11/8)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 14.1% overall win rate for J. Patrick O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- With £30,000 in prize money, this is a lower-level race. That sometimes means the horse has struggled in better races.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut at Listed level in a competitive seven-horse field, which is an unusually high-class entry point for an unraced 4-year-old. Carries decent breeding through Night Of Thunder sire lines and is trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien, but no data exists to assess how he will handle racing or this distance. The complete lack of prior form makes this an unpredictable runner.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Last raced 26 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old with just 2 wins from 16 races (roughly 1 in 8) and without a victory in 13 months, despite finishing 2nd at Listowel just 26 days ago. His record deteriorates markedly on good ground and at right-handed tracks like Leopardstown, where he has not won in 8 attempts, making him poorly suited to today's conditions. Recent top-3 finishes hint at slight improvement, but the form profile is weak.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 11.0% overall win rate for J. P. Murtagh. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- An 11% overall win rate for J. P. Murtagh. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- There is £30,000 in prize money. A small prize can mean weaker rivals, but it may also mean the horse is running below its best level.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner in the field with a perfect 2-from-3 record at Leopardstown on normal ground, though he hasn't raced there since finishing 4th over 129 days ago. A 91-day absence is the longest in the race, raising questions about his readiness despite an excellent record when fresh. Win rate of roughly 1 in 3 races overall, but the long layoff is a genuine risk.
Only course winner (1 from 3 here)
Best record on this ground (2 from 3)
Absent 91 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- This is a 7-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
TrackLab Insight
At just 3 years old, Lewis Carroll is significantly less experienced than most rivals with only 4 career races and a win rate of 25% (1 from 4). His sole victory came over 204 days ago at Curragh, and he has finished 4th in both of his last two races, suggesting he has not progressed since that breakthrough. The draw in 2 offers a slight advantage at this course, but recent form is trending downward.
Relatively inexperienced (4 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 7-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- P. J Flynn has a 7.2% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Drops four classes from his usual level and brings a win rate of roughly 1 in 3 races from his eight-race career, with three consecutive top-3 finishes including a narrow 2nd just 8 days ago at Naas. However, the jockey-trainer pairing has recorded zero wins from 11 previous races together, an unusual disconnect that raises questions about their effectiveness as a unit. This is his first run at this level, creating genuine uncertainty.
Drops 4 classes from usual level
3 straight top-3 finishes