Second in the betting at 6.2 despite having just one win from 20 career races — but that win came in a Class 1 race at Cheltenham, which marks this horse out as a very different animal from most rivals here. It finished second last time out at Ballinrobe and has shown consistent form over the last couple of months. The worry is a poor record on soft or wet ground, which could be relevant if conditions deteriorate at Killarney.
No wins yet from five races, but the recent form shows genuine improvement — a third at Cork and a fourth beaten just a length at Gowran Park last month point to a horse that is learning its trade. Drawn widest of all in stall 14, which at this course and distance historically produces the lowest win rate of any draw band. Interesting profile but the high draw works against it before the race has even started.
The market favourite at 5.5, and it has earned that spot — three consecutive top-three finishes including a win at Navan six weeks ago and a near-miss second last time out, beaten just a nose at Bellewstown. The distance of a mile and six furlongs suits, with a 12% win rate at that range, and this horse has shown it can perform on normal ground. The fly in the ointment is a poor record on right-handed galloping tracks, and Killarney is a left-handed course, which is at least in its favour.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The youngest horse in the field at three and carrying the lightest weight — that weight allowance can be a real advantage in a race like this. A third-place finish at Bellewstown 13 days ago is the best recent evidence, and previous form here at Killarney, albeit a 10th, means it has at least seen the track before. No wins yet from seven races, but trainer Donnacha O'Brien's combination with jockey Chris Hayes has delivered six wins from 32 races together, so there is a working partnership in place.
No wins yet from six races, but three consecutive third-place finishes show this horse is consistently competitive — it just can't quite get its head in front. Trained by Noel Meade and ridden by Colin Keane, a combination that has delivered 59 wins from 502 races together, this is a well-supported team. At 6.2 in the market it is taken seriously, and if that placed form can translate into a win, this trip looks within range.
J. Kearney(3)
·
C. Murphy
· 4yo
· 10st 1lb
· OR 64
FreshnessForm
11.0
Quick turnaroundWon 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Won just three days ago at Dundalk, which raises an eyebrow — running again this quickly is unusual and worth watching closely. This horse has built a solid record on standard ground with three wins from eight attempts (38%), but those wins have all come at shorter distances than today's mile and six furlongs. The odds drifting sharply from an opening price suggest the market isn't convinced this quick turnaround is a positive sign.
Our editorial selection and the top-rated horse in the field at 69, which puts it five pounds clear of the average — a meaningful edge on paper in a race this competitive. With 42 races under its belt it is by far the most experienced runner here, nearly two and a half times the field average of 17. The concern is real though: recent form shows finishing positions of sixth, ninth, tenth and eleventh, and it has managed just one win from 19 races on left-handed tracks like Killarney.
Carries the best career win rate in the field, winning roughly one in every five races — but that record was built primarily over shorter distances of a mile to a mile and two furlongs, and today's mile and six furlongs is notably further than anything this horse has thrived at. It won at Fairyhouse seven weeks ago before finishing a well-beaten fifth at Leopardstown, so the form is patchy. The step up in trip is the big unknown here.
One win from 14 races makes this one of the harder horses to get excited about, and at 17/1 the market agrees. The distance at least suits on paper — it has shown a 25% win rate over a mile six to two miles — but there is a gap in the data from its last run at Fairyhouse 33 days ago, making it difficult to assess current form. Probably needs things to fall perfectly to feature.
M. Telford-Kelly(7)
·
W. McCreery
· 6yo
· 9st 12lb
· OR 68
HeadgearForm
6.4
Wearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Rated 68 and identified as one of the two biggest dangers to the selection, this horse carries a good record on normal ground with two wins from eight attempts (25%). Distance is a genuine plus — it has shown its best form over longer trips of two miles or more, and today's mile and six furlongs sits nicely in that range. However, recent form has been poor, including a pulled-up run at Clonmel and a finishing position of 13th at Gowran Park before last time's sixth at the Curragh.
J. Cleary(5)
·
M. A Molloy
· 8yo
· 9st 2lb
· OR 58
FormTrack
6.4
Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field, sitting five pounds below the field average — that is a real disadvantage in a race where ratings are tightly bunched. Eight years old with 38 races behind it, this horse has made a career of finishing in the places (11 times) without converting, and a single career win tells you everything about the level at which it operates. The distance suits on paper but it has a poor record on most ground types other than genuinely soft or wet conditions.
Fresh (267 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field by some distance — this horse has not raced for 267 days, which is nearly nine months. No wins from nine career races and a last run that ended in 16th place at the Curragh make this a very difficult horse to back with confidence. Coming back from such a long break, without a win to its name, asks a lot of faith from anyone watching.
Four races, no wins, no places — the last run was a 14th-place finish at Roscommon 65 days ago, and the run before that came over a year earlier. This is a horse with very limited experience and nothing in the form book to suggest a breakthrough is imminent. The data is thin and the record is bare; hard to make a case here.
A. Browne-Souza(7)
·
J. Morrison
· 4yo
· 9st 8lb
· OR 64
FreshnessForm
0.4
Quick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Zero wins from eight races, and the last two outings were beaten 27 lengths at Tramore and 40 lengths at the Curragh — these are not the finishing positions of a horse about to spring a surprise. The standout marker of 'placed in 2 of last 3 races' appears at odds with finishing positions of 10th and 13th; the data does show one placed finish in its career but recent runs tell a bleaker story. At 101/1 and with a jockey partnering this horse for the first time, this looks like a very tough ask.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.