Killarney

The only proven winner in this field alongside Celtic Moon, having won at Bellewstown just 12 days ago — and crucially, that win came first time out, meaning this horse didn't need a warm-up race to figure things out. Drawn in stall 1, which historically produces the best results at this course and distance, giving a small but real advantage over rivals. Wins roughly 1 in 3 races with this jockey-and-trainer pairing and arrives in form — hard to ignore.

Our top pick on the figures despite having just one race to its name, which ended in a fourth-place finish — so the faith here rests almost entirely on what the numbers suggest about future potential. The jockey-and-trainer combination here wins roughly 1 in 6 races together across a large sample, giving solid professional support. It is a thin evidence base, and the analysts admit confidence is low, but the figures edge this horse ahead of a tight field.

The other horse in this field making its racecourse debut with no form whatsoever to judge — along with Dakota Jack, it is a complete unknown. The trainer, G M Lyons, wins roughly 1 in 5 races with this jockey, which at least signals a professional setup behind the horse. Beyond that, there is nothing concrete to work with.

Shares the same win record as Full Volume — one win from two races — but went one better by also posting a fourth on her debut before winning, showing steady improvement across two runs. The concern is the draw: stall 6 is part of the low draw group, which still produces a decent share of winners at this course, so it is not a serious disadvantage. Rates as one of the genuine dangers here and arrives in form after that Bellewstown win 13 days ago.