Cheltenham
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Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Starts in
14h 7min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £4 · 21 Strong chance
3m 1f is a good distance for this horse
21
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 4/1
£1 wins £4 · 21 Strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 3m 1f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- A low win rate on this ground from 6 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- S. Thomas has a 7.3% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
This eight-year-old won a Class 1 race at Kempton in February—the highest-class victory in the field—and finished second in a Class 2 race at Cheltenham less than a year ago, showing real quality when it matters. He hasn't raced since pulling up at Ayr in September, so ring-rust is a real concern after such a long absence, and his record on normal ground is poor (0 wins from 6 starts). If he's regained fitness and the ground favours him, his pedigree is strongest here, but the layoff is a significant question mark.
Among the fancied runners (4/1)
£1 wins £3.33 · 21 Strong chance
A 13.0% win rate at this course for H. Skelton
21
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 13.0% win rate at this course for H. Skelton. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- Today's race is over 3m 1f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
This eight-year-old is an exceptional specialist: he's won 60% of his races at Perth (3 from 5) and has finished in the top three 12 times from 23 races overall, showing genuine consistency. However, he hasn't raced since August—over seven months ago—which is the longest absence in the field by a significant margin, and his recent runs before that break were all third-place finishes beaten by large margins. The Perth form suggests quality, but predicting a return to form after such a long break at Cheltenham is speculative, and he struggles on left-handed undulating tracks.
Absent 231 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 3m 1f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- N. & Willy Twiston-Davies wins only 3.3% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
At 9 years old with 25 races under his belt, this horse carries the market's shortest price and is clearly trusted by the yard—he's been off since June but runs for a partnership with an excellent win rate together. The standout is his record on soft ground: he wins roughly 2 in every 5 races on wet going, which is the strongest soft-ground record in this field. However, he has never won on good-to-soft or heavy ground, so he needs the forecast to stay on the dry side of normal.
Market favourite (4/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 3m 1f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 33% win rate from 6 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- Facing tougher rivals than last time. It is like moving up to a harder league. The step up is a challenge.
TrackLab Insight
This seven-year-old is the youngest in the field and carries the best credentials for a recent upturn in form: he's won three of his last six races, including a recent victory at Kelso 217 days ago. With a win rate of 27% (1 in 4 races) over 15 career races, he's solidly reliable, but the long layoff is notable and he has shown a weakness on left-handed galloping tracks. The positive is that Cheltenham is not a left-handed track, so that risk doesn't apply here.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A Chase Turf race works in this horse's favour. Horses often do best in one type of race and struggle in others.
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
TrackLab Insight
This eight-year-old won a Class 1 race at Cheltenham in January but is fragile in form—he's finished seventh twice in his last three races, most recently beaten by 53 lengths at Worcester 29 days ago. His overall record is 3 wins from 31 races (10%), and recent form suggests his Cheltenham victory was an outlier rather than a new level. He does hold a win on soft ground and has been active, but consistency is a real problem.
Among the more experienced (31 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 3m 1f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- This is a Chase Turf race, and it suits this horse. Running in the right type of race matters.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
This eight-year-old has won three of his last six races and arrives here in the form of his life—he won at Uttoxeter just 39 days ago and Worcester 94 days before that. He holds the best win rate in the field at 35%, wins roughly two-thirds of his races on normal ground conditions (3 from 5), and is the only course winner among these nine. The main concern is a modest record on softer going, but normal conditions today suit him perfectly.
Best record on this ground (3 from 5)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Today's race is over 3m 1f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- M. Keighley wins only 9.3% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
This eight-year-old is the field's most experienced with 23 races, but recent form is concerning—he's finished fifth or worse in four of his last five runs, beaten by double-figure margins in three of them. His wins have come on heavy or yielding ground at Punchestown, and he has zero wins on soft-to-heavy going despite facing plenty of it; normal ground today is unfamiliar territory. With odds drifting to 20/1 and a two-and-a-half-month absence, he looks the weakest proposition on current evidence.
Among the more experienced (23 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 3m 1f is a good distance for this horse. Over its best distance, it can run its own race.
- D. Pipe has a good 9.2% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
At six years old, this horse is the least experienced in the field with just eight races, making him effectively a newcomer to this level and company. He finished second at Worcester 17 days ago and has won two of his eight races, but bouncing from moderate handicap company to a Cheltenham chase without a win pattern is a significant step up. The blinkers suggest his yard is still experimenting with his method, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding him.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 3m 1f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- A. Wedge wins 11.3% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
This eight-year-old carries the lowest weight and rating, and finally broke his duck at Windsor in January—a sign of late maturity—but has managed just 1 win from 13 races overall (8%). He hasn't raced in 224 days despite being entered recently, creating questions about his current condition, and runs for a jockey-trainer combination that hasn't worked together before. His one win came on softer ground; he has no wins on good-to-soft or better, which limits his prospects on normal conditions.
Lowest rated, 8lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.