David Probert

His most reliable alliance is with trainer Andrew Balding, a partnership that has produced 9 wins from 70 rides together — roughly 1 in every 8, well above his season-wide average. That kind of return from a single yard suggests a genuine working relationship, the sort where horse and jockey are matched thoughtfully rather than by accident. Probert also has a strong affinity for Haydock Park, where he has won 4 races from just 12 rides — a remarkable 1 in 3, which is the kind of number that makes trainers pick up the phone when they are booking for a trip north.

His overall numbers this season show 49 winners from 533 rides — roughly 1 in every 11 — and his win rate has dipped from 13% last year to 9% this time around, which is worth noting. But zoom in on the last two weeks and the picture looks very different: 5 winners from 25 rides, a 20% win rate that is more than double his season average. Whether that recent purple patch signals a return to last year's form or is simply a hot streak remains to be seen, but it is the kind of form that makes him worth watching right now. He also shows a neat aptitude for wet or muddy ground, winning 3 of 21 races in those conditions — about 1 in 7, comfortably ahead of where he sits on a dry day.

Probert is the kind of jockey whose full story is easy to miss if you only glance at the headline numbers. Dig a little deeper, though, and you find a rider who saves his best for the biggest days, thrives at specific venues, and is currently hitting a vein of form that has him firing at twice his usual rate.